A day before Easter, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a temporary ceasefire for the Christian holiday. Like other Russian promises, this one was broken too. Ukrainian media reported Russian drone attacks, shelling and firefights across the front lines. Ukrainian civilians were also targeted.
This ceasefire that wasn’t came on the tail of another one: a 30-day ceasefire that was supposed to cover energy infrastructure. That was violated at least 30 times, per Ukrainian media reports.
Throughout this time, United States President Donald Trump has continued to maintain that peace could be achieved. Even after his own Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US could walk away from its mediator role because of lack of progress, the president still showed optimism that a deal was possible.
On Easter Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week.”
A week earlier, Russia struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy with ballistic missiles. The death toll from the attack reached 34 people, including two children, with more than a dozen injured. Even this bloody attack did not sway the US president, who called it “a mistake”.
It is by now clear that three months into his presidency, Trump is failing dramatically in Ukraine. He must now realise that bold promises are easier made than fulfilled. He has not ended the war in 24 hours and will not do so in 100 days either, as he has promised.
Under his leadership, Washington’s mediating drive appears stalled and its strategy unclear. A president who prides himself on deal-making and strength now stands indecisive and ineffective.
If this continues, Trump risks failing twice: once as a negotiator and again as an ally. His current approach is not only weakening the role of the US in the world but also emboldening Russia to continue its aggression.
Despite the Trump administration’s outreach to the Kremlin, it has received nothing more than empty rhetoric and broken promises for ceasefires.
Putin’s stance hasn’t changed: He demands recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea and four Ukrainian regions the Russian army partially occupies, no NATO membership for Kyiv and a limit on the size of its army. He has also openly called for regime change in the country, demanding elections during the war.
Putin feels he’s negotiating from a position of strength and refuses to compromise. Trump currently lacks the leverage to make him reconsider, and so his strategy is to pressure Ukraine into capitulating to Russia. He is making the situation worse with his policies on military aid for Ukraine.
After initially halting the transfer of weapons and munitions and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Trump partially reversed his stance. He allowed military assistance approved by the administration of his predecessor President Joe Biden to resume, but he has refused to consider a new package once the current one comes to an end.
His administration still has several billion dollars available for drawdown, which could be allocated for further security support to Ukraine, but Trump has not signalled he is willing to approve it.
That means Ukraine will soon face a situation in which key munitions stocks run out. Russia knows this, and it is using negotiations with the US to buy time.
While it is waiting for the Ukrainian army to run out of vital supplies, Moscow has also initiated a large troop mobilisation. The call-up of 160,000 new conscripts marks a significant escalation. Ukrainian commanders have warned that major offensives could begin within weeks across multiple fronts.
Putin’s aim is to use the Trump administration’s self-professed “peace-making” ambitions to his advantage. His strategy is to drag out ceasefire negotiations until US military aid runs out and the Russian army is able to advance far enough into Ukrainian territory to force Kyiv into capitulation.
For Ukraine, defeat is not an option. The nation is still standing and will continue fighting because its freedom and independence are at stake. Even if Trump puts more pressure on Kyiv to consider a bad “peace deal” with Russia in which it makes all the concessions Putin wants, no Ukrainian leader would sign it because that would mean political ruin.
Europe, for all its hesitations and internal divisions, has little choice now but to become a full-fledged ally of Kyiv. Europeans know Russia would not stop at Ukraine, and the threat is existential for them as well. The Kremlin is already preparing the Russian population through a large-scale propaganda campaign that a “great war” with NATO countries is necessary.
In the face of this threat, European countries are looking to rearm, and for this, they need time. This means that Ukraine’s war of liberation will continue for years, with or without US involvement.
Meanwhile, the US under its current course will sink deeper into domestic crises, consumed by the aftershocks of self-isolation and haunted by costly decisions in a world it no longer leads. This will be what Trump leaves behind: a legacy not of resolution but of retreat.
If he does not change course, history will remember him not as a strong leader who brought peace but as a boastful, naive man who made promises he could not fulfil.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
