Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, warned Thursday about the economic implications of not passing President Trump’s domestic policy bill by the deadline given by the White House.
While in discussion with NewsNation’s Blake Burman on “The Hill,” Miran suggested the U.S. could face a recession if Congress fails to pass the “big, beautiful bill” by July 4.
Markets, companies and CEOs are currently confident in Congress’s ability to get the legislation over the finish line, “but if that confidence starts to ebb, that will seep into the economy,” Miran warned. “If people start to think, ‘Hey, this thing is dragging on,’ we might have a $4 trillion tax hike. They hold off on investments, they hold off on hiring, they put off economic decisions.”
He continued, “And that’s really, really bad, because then the economy slips into recession because they expect that tax hike.”
When pressed by Burman on whether he was predicting there would be a recession if the bill isn’t passed or the deadline is pushed back, Miran responded, “Oh, absolutely.”
“Look, you don’t implement the biggest tax hike in history, because Congress fails to do its duty and then expect the economy not to go into a recession,” he continued.
Miran suggested that “millions of people” could lose their jobs, and nine million could lose their health insurance if the “big, beautiful bill” fails or the deadline is pushed back.
“It would be a disaster. And so, everybody knows the absolute imperative to get this bill over the line,” Miran added.
Some economists are suggesting the Senate version of the bill may not live up to its promises for economic growth and fiscal responsibility, however. Some tax experts say tax-cut provisions meant to aid working Americans will have little, if no, effect on growth. And with all tax cut extensions factored in, the bill could end up costing between $4 trillion and $5 trillion over 10 years.
The White House has been adamant about passing Trump’s massive reconciliation package by July 4.
“We expect that bill to be on the president’s desk for signature by July Fourth,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday. The House has already passed its version of the bill, which is now waiting for passage in the Senate. It will need to be approved again by the House before Trump is able to give it his signature.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
