The BRICS are falling apart.
The promising economic group — originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — has increased both its membership and its internal rivalries. And the leaders of Russia and China, the group’s two superpowers, are not expected to attend this weekend’s Summit in Rio de Janeiro.
China’s authoritarian government is going through a rough patch, and I’m not talking about the Chinese real estate crisis, its lack of purchasing power, its high youth unemployment, low population growth or the economic slowdown that makes its recent 10 percent annual growth feel like a distant memory.
No, the new crisis is linked to a strange earthquake prompted by President Xi Jinping, who often disappears for several weeks at a time and announces the renewal of an anti-corruption fight to purge “undisciplined” military personnel or eliminate potential political adversaries.
Gen. Miao Hua, vice admiral the People’s Liberation Army, is one of the latest top officials to be purged by the political and military architecture of the Communist regime. Miao was a senior admiral and the director of the political work department of the Central Military Commission, which helps ensure loyalty within the armed forces. Xi’s political maneuvers also affect generals and scientists in missiles, nuclear programs and aerospace.
China plays a divisive and discordant role in BRICS. Its ambition for greater power and promotion of its geopolitical strategy against the West has led it to double the number of BRICS members, regardless of factors such as economic strength, political stability or positive contributions to the group. In this pursuit, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Indonesia, Ethiopia and Iran have joined as new members.
China has also weakened BRICS through its rivalry with India. China maintains close political, military and commercial ties with Pakistan, India’s main adversary. Added to this, a silent trade war has deepened, in which China hinders India’s industry, generating tensions between two countries.
The other BRICS members are not exempt from challenges and confrontations. After President Trump’s return to the White House, the so-called leadership of the Global South appears divided and defeated. In April, the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Summit failed to pass a joint resolution, unable to reach agreements to promote the integration of Brazil and South Africa as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. The meeting was a bust.
The BRICS conflicts do not end there. Vladimir Putin cannot attend Rio in person because there is an international arrest warrant out for him for war crimes in Ukraine. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not necessarily best friends; Ethiopia and Egypt have a tense relationship over the Nile. And the list goes on.
The host country, Brazil, also has its own valley of shadows. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has lost international support due to his radical pro-Iran and pro-Russia stances. Domestically, polls show Lula with only 28 percent approval. The Brazilian economy is a disaster, with high interest rates that make credit more expensive, reduce consumption and slow growth.
Brazil seeks to promote the candidacy of a woman for U.N. Secretary General and, at the local level, Lula has expressed potential interest in a fourth presidential term to “prevent the return of the right.”
BRICS has utterly failed to break the hegemony of the dollar, and the New Development Bank is a white elephant that lacks the resources or financial strength of Western, U.S.-backed institutions such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
The BRICS summit has already failed before its launch. Perhaps we can expect some agreements on artificial intelligence, the promotion of renewable energy and a general, watered-down call for dialogue and peace in the Middle East and Ukraine. But there won’t be much more than that — it’s just another brick in the wall.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University’s Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.
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