The 2026 NCAA Tournament tipped off with a bang as Miami (Ohio) pulled off a stunning 89-79 upset of SMU in the First Four—covering as a 7.5-point underdog and cashing both spread and money-line bets—while Thursday’s slate delivered a brutal day for public bettors with heavy favorites like Duke and Michigan failing to cover massive spreads, setting the stage for a potentially unpredictable March Madness.
The first full day of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is in the books, and while the on-court product provided the expected mix of blowouts and nail-biters, the betting results tell a more dramatic story. Wednesday’s First Four saw Miami (Ohio) dominate SMU by 10 points as a 7.5-point underdog—a result that had immediate ripple effects across the betting market and bracket contests nationwide. That set the tone for a Thursday where betting public sentiment was consistently wrong, with several high-profile spreads failing to materialize.
Thursday’s Complete Scoreboard & Betting Results
The first full slate of Round of 64 games produced a clear pattern: public money hammered heavy favorites, but many of those teams either won by less than expected or lost outright. Below is the complete betting result for each completed game.
Confirmed Upsets & Spread Results
- (9) TCU 66, (8) Ohio State 64 — TCU (+2.5) covered; game stayed Under 146.5
- (4) Nebraska 76, (13) Troy 47 — Nebraska (-13.5) covered easily; game stayed Under 138.5
- (6) Louisville 83, (11) South Florida 79 — Louisville (-4.5) covered; game stayed Under 160.5
- (5) Wisconsin 82, (12) High Point 83 — MAJOR UPSET: High Point (+10.5) won and covered; game stayed Under 161.5
- (1) Duke 75, (16) Siena 43 (Halftime: Duke 32, Siena 43) — Duke (-27.5) has NOT covered at halftime; game is Under 135.5
The most shocking result came in Madison, where 12-seed High Point defeated 5-seed Wisconsin, sending shockwaves through both the betting world and bracket pools. This followed the pattern of double-digit seeds winning outright, a phenomenon that defines early March Madness chaos.
Why These Results Matter Immediately
For bettors, Thursday was a brutal lesson in market efficiency. Public money typically floods onto powerhouse programs like Duke, Michigan, and Louisville, driving lines upward. Yet all three either failed to cover or, in Duke’s case, were in serious danger at halftime against a 16-seed. This suggests either:
- The market overvalued these traditional powers due to name recognition rather than current form.
- These teams may have underlying vulnerabilities that lower seeds can exploit.
For bracket enthusiasts, the High Point win is catastrophic for anyone who picked Wisconsin to advance to the Sweet 16 or beyond. That single result likely eliminated millions of perfect bracket dreams in the first hour of action.
Live Games & Pending Analysis
As of the latest update, several games were either in progress or yet to start. Key matchups with substantial spreads include:
- (1) Duke vs. (16) Siena — Duke leads 32-43 at halftime, failing to cover the 27.5-point spread.
- (12) McNeese vs. (5) Vanderbilt — Vanderbilt (-11.5) leads 30-33 with 3:10 left in 1st half.
- (14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Michigan State — MSU (-15.5) is a 4:10 PM ET start on TNT.
- (13) Hawai’i vs. (4) Arkansas — Arkansas (-14.5) tips at 4:25 PM ET on TBS.
The Duke game is the most watched, as a 1-seed failing to cover a 27.5-point spread against a 16-seed would be historically rare and another major market upset.
Historical Context & Fan Implications
While 16-seeds have beaten 1-seeds before (most notably Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue in 2023), a 16-seed covering a 27.5-point spread would be virtually unprecedented. That scenario would indicate either a complete market miscalculation or a catastrophic performance from a blue blood program—both of which provide instant narrative fuel for the entire tournament.
For Wisconsin, the loss to High Point continues a recent pattern of Big Ten disappointment in the tournament. Fans will point to this as further evidence that the conference’s top teams are overrated relative to mid-majors with veteran leadership and offensive firepower.
The Nebraska win, while expected, was a statement. Covering a 13.5-point spread against Troy by 29 points sends a message that the Cornhuskers are not just a tournament participant but a potential threat to advance. This directly impacts how the rest of the South Region will be viewed.
What to Watch Next
With Friday’s slate featuring matchups like Texas vs. BYU and Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s, the trend of close spreads (BYU only -2.5) suggests another day where public favorites may struggle to cover. The key narratives to track:
- Can Duke recover and cover the massive second-half number?
- Will Vanderbilt hold off McNeese to cover its double-digit spread?
- Do the early upsets signal a tournament-wide trend of mid-majors outperforming expectations?
Each result recalibrates the betting market for subsequent games, as oddsmakers adjust to the new reality of team performance.
For the fastest, most authoritative analysis of every game result as it happens—with instant context on what each score means for your brackets and bets—stick with onlytrustedinfo.com. We translate breaking scores into actionable insight the moment they happen, because understanding why it matters is more valuable than just knowing what happened.
