Intuitive Machines‘ (NASDAQ: LUNR) stock soared more than 20% to a two-month high on May 13 after it posted its latest earnings report. For the first quarter of 2025, the lunar exploration company’s revenue fell 14% year over year to $62.5 million but still exceeded analysts’ expectations by $3.1 million. Its operating loss widened from $2.8 million to $10.1 million, but it also cleared the consensus forecast for an operating loss of $11.2 million.
Intuitive Machines’ numbers might not seem that impressive, but its recent achievements, fresh contracts, and bright guidance for the rest of the year brought back the bulls. Let’s take a look at those three catalysts and see if investors should chase its post-earnings pop.
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Intuitive Machines achieved its second lunar landing
Intuitive Machines produces lunar landing and exploration vehicles. Its top customer is NASA, but it also helps private companies deliver their payloads to the moon. It’s achieved two successful lunar landings for NASA so far.
On Feb. 22, 2024, it landed its first Nova-C lander, IM-1 (Odysseus), on the moon. It tipped over after touching down, but it still transmitted over 350 megabytes of data from its payloads for NASA and its commercial customers before shutting down. That marked the first successful U.S. moon landing since 1972, and it prompted NASA to award Intuitive with additional contracts.
On March 6, 2025, it landed its second Nova-C lander, IM-2 (Athena), in the southernmost lunar landing ever near the moon’s south pole. The lander tipped over to its side again, but it still collected and transmitted some data for its payloads before shutting down. Achieving that second landing during the first quarter indicated its business was sustainable — and that it could keep securing a steady stream of contracts from NASA and its commercial customers.
Intuitive Machines’ relationship with NASA is tightening
This January, NASA awarded Intuitive a new $2.5 million contract to develop a heavy cargo lunar lander. That contract is part of NASA’s Moon-to-Mars Architecture project, which aims to establish a sustainable human presence on the moon. That deal complements two other major contracts with NASA: a long-term lunar terrain vehicle (LTV) contract last April and a five-year near-space network services (NSNS) contract worth up to $4.8 billion last September. It earned $9 million for executing the first two milestones for the NSNS contract during the quarter, and it secured an additional $18 million in funding for the next two milestones in the second quarter.
Intuitive also remains locked into NASA’s main Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contracts, which sent IM-1 and IM-2 to the moon. It plans to launch IM-3 this October and IM-4 in 2027. If it successfully lands those landers — and they don’t tip over like their predecessors — Intuitive could pull far ahead of its U.S. competitors like Astrobotic Technology, Firefly Aerospace, and Draper Laboratory. All three of those rivals hold CLPS contracts.
It provided a rosy outlook for the rest of the year
For 2025, Intuitive Machines expects its revenue to rise 10% to 32% to $250 million to $300 million. That matches analysts’ expectations for 23% growth to $281 million. Analysts expect its revenue to rise another 38% to $387 million in 2026.
The company expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to achieve a positive run rate in 2025 and finally turn positive for the full year in 2026. Analysts expect it to report a negative adjusted EBITDA of $14 million in 2025 and a positive adjusted EBITDA of $35 million in 2026.
That bright outlook indicates Intuitive Machines’ business model is a lot more sustainable than many of its space-oriented peers. And with an enterprise value of $805 million, it looks reasonably valued at 2 times next year’s sales and 23 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Is it the right time to buy Intuitive Machines’ stock?
Intuitive Machines got off to a shaky start after it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) two years ago. Its delayed launches caused it to broadly miss its own pre-merger expectations as it racked up more losses.
But today, the company is on much firmer ground. Although its first two landings weren’t perfect, it’s quickly becoming NASA’s preferred partner for lunar landings and other space exploration contracts. Its clear roadmap for the future, its robust near-term guidance, and its low valuations all indicate it’s still worth buying after its recent rally.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
