XRP’s recent pullback from $1.45 is a symptom of a deeper supply wall between $1.76 and $1.80, where roughly $2.83 billion worth of XRP was purchased, creating a massive resistance cluster that could stall any rally until sustained buying pressure or a major catalyst intervenes.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been grappling with a ceiling around $1.45 for weeks, but that level is merely a precursor to a far more formidable barrier between $1.76 and $1.80. On-chain data reveals a massive concentration of supply at that higher range, creating a supply wall that could suppress any sustained rally until a confluence of catalysts materializes.
Approximately 1.85 billion XRP, valued at roughly $2.83 billion, was acquired between $1.76 and $1.80. This represents nearly 3% of the total circulating supply and forms one of the heaviest single resistance clusters on the chart. The investors who entered at those levels have been underwater since January, meaning a significant portion will likely rush to exit on any approach to breakeven, capping upward momentum.
Moreover, broader market pain persists. According to blockchain analytics, about 36.8 billion XRP—around 60% of the circulating supply—is currently held below its average cost basis of $1.44. The resulting unrealized losses total approximately $50.8 billion, creating a vast overhang of potential selling pressure that will weigh on any recovery attempt.
From a technical standpoint, XRP is trading in the $1.37 to $1.40 range and remains below all four major exponential moving averages: the 20‑day EMA at $1.46, the 50‑day EMA at $1.64, the 100‑day EMA at $1.85, and the 200‑day EMA at $2.08. This alignment indicates a entrenched bearish trend in which each moving average acts as a resistance layer that must be convincingly breached to shift the momentum.
The Path to Breaking $1.76
Before XRP can even test the $1.76 wall, it must first stabilize above $1.45. That level corresponds to the average cost basis across all holders and has acted as a rejection point repeatedly in March. Successive closes above $1.45 would signal that immediate selling pressure is weakening.
The next milestone is $1.55, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January decline. A daily close above this level would constitute the first higher high since the selloff began, suggesting the downtrend may be easing.
Beyond $1.55 lies the 50‑day EMA near $1.64, which also coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel that has contained every rally since February. A breakout above $1.64 on substantial volume would indicate a potential trend reversal, flipping the 50‑day EMA from resistance to support.
Interestingly, the cost basis heatmap thins between $1.64 and $1.76, meaning there is relatively little overhead supply in that corridor. If XRP can clear $1.64, the run toward $1.76 could accelerate quickly, as fewer sellers would be waiting to exit.
Catalysts and Scenarios
Breaking through the $1.76‑$1.80 supply wall demands enormous buying pressure to absorb an estimated $2.83 billion in overhead. Currently, XRP ETF inflows are negative, but a reversal to inflows of at least $250 million per month—similar to levels seen in late 2025—would be needed to generate sufficient sustained demand over the coming months.
Two major catalysts could ignite such buying:
- Bitcoin rallying to $75,000–$80,000, which typically triggers an altcoin season and draws capital into mid‑cap cryptocurrencies like XRP.
- The passage of the CLARITY Act in the United States, which would classify XRP as a digital commodity rather than a security, opening the floodgates for institutional investment.
If these factors align and XRP manages to break $1.76 on high volume, the next resistance levels are the 100‑day EMA around $1.85, the psychological $2.00 barrier, and finally the 200‑day EMA near $2.08. Reclaiming the 200‑day EMA would be a strong signal that a new uptrend is underway.
Conversely, if $1.76 proves insurmountable and the price falters, the previously cleared levels could revert to resistance. A failure at $1.76 might see XRP retrace through $1.64, $1.55, and $1.45, eventually settling into a range of $1.35 to $1.40 where fresh accumulation appears to be forming.
Separately: Analyst Who Predicted NVIDIA’s 2010 Surge Releases AI Stock Picks
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