With Ja Morant sidelined for 25 games, the NBA Southwest Division promises an electrifying season as teams like the Mavericks and Pelicans eye the top spot, and the Rockets and Spurs showcase their burgeoning young talent, all detailed in this comprehensive preview.
The NBA Southwest Division typically delivers its fair share of drama, but last year was particularly wild. The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs languished at the bottom, the New Orleans Pelicans were constantly battling injury woes, the Memphis Grizzlies navigated both on and off-court controversies, and the Dallas Mavericks faced an epic late-season disappointment. As the new season approaches, the landscape is ripe for a significant shake-up, offering intriguing storylines for fans and bettors alike.
For the past two seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies have held the division title, but a significant 25-game suspension for their star guard, Ja Morant, has created an opening. This setback puts the entire division on notice, with youthful contenders eagerly anticipating their chance to emerge from their rebuilding phases sooner than expected. The upcoming season is set to test the mettle of every team in the Southwest, from established contenders to promising newcomers.
Memphis Grizzlies: Navigating the Storm
The Memphis Grizzlies, fresh off a 51-31 record last season, face a formidable challenge with Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension due to off-court conduct. This absence will undoubtedly impact their early-season performance, forcing other players to shoulder a heavier load. The official NBA announcement detailed the suspension, underscoring its significance to the team’s outlook, as reported by NBA.com.
In a strategic offseason move, the Grizzlies traded Tyus Jones for veteran guard Marcus Smart and allowed Dillon Brooks to depart in free agency. Smart’s arrival is pivotal, as he is expected to provide both the playmaking acumen of Jones and the defensive intensity and locker room leadership that Brooks brought, albeit with less scoring output. This shift aims for both on-court and cultural changes within the team.
During Morant’s absence, much of the offensive burden will fall on Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., who will need to elevate their game significantly. The departure of Brooks also leaves a void on the wing, requiring Brandon Clarke or Ziaire Williams to step up. While some downplay Morant’s time away, it’s expected to heavily affect their win total. With an over/under set at 45.5 wins, many are predicting the Grizzlies to finish under 45.5 wins, especially given their eroded depth compared to previous seasons.
Breakout Candidate: Brandon Clarke
As Dillon Brooks’ shoes need filling, Brandon Clarke emerges as a prime candidate. Despite battling injuries last season, Clarke demonstrated flashes of solid play, particularly towards the end of the year. If he can maintain consistency and secure more minutes, his ability to contribute offensively and defensively will be crucial for the Grizzlies.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie’s Return and Roster Reimagining
The Dallas Mavericks endured a disappointing end to last season after trading for Kyrie Irving, failing to make the playoffs despite high expectations. However, their offseason moves paint a more optimistic picture. The pivotal re-signing of Irving, reportedly for a 3-year, $126 million deal, solidified their star power alongside Luka Doncic.
Beyond Irving, the Mavericks smartly retooled their roster, addressing key needs. They acquired Grant Williams in a sign-and-trade with the Celtics and signed Seth Curry in free agency, adding depth and shooting. While they still lack a definitive “third star,” these additions provide crucial role players and defensive presence, which was a significant issue last year. Their win total is projected at 45.5, with division odds at +155, making them the narrow favorites over Memphis according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
For the Mavericks, the immediate focus is on ensuring their potent offense, led by Doncic (who averaged 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8 assists last season) and Irving (27 points, 6 assists in 20 games with Dallas), translates into consistent wins. Improving their defense, which struggled significantly last year, will be paramount if they aim to challenge for the division title and contend in the Western Conference.
Breakout Candidate: Maxi Kleber
The departure of Christian Wood opens up significant minutes at the center position, creating an opportunity for Maxi Kleber to become a regular starter. Kleber, a capable floor-stretcher, can provide valuable spacing around Doncic and Irving. As he earns more trust in the starting lineup, his offensive production, particularly from deep, is expected to increase.
New Orleans Pelicans: The Ever-Elusive Health of Zion
The perennial question for the New Orleans Pelicans remains: “To Zion or not to Zion?” Zion Williamson’s immense talent is undeniable when he’s on the court, averaging 26 points per game last season. However, his struggle to stay healthy is a major concern, having played only 90 games over the past three seasons. Similarly, Brandon Ingram has also battled injuries, surpassing 60 games just twice in his last six seasons.
The Pelicans are largely running back the same roster, with minor adjustments like adding Jordan Hawkins, a ready-made shooter, in the draft. If Williamson and Ingram can stay healthy alongside point guard CJ McCollum, this team possesses the firepower to contend for a playoff spot and even the division title, a feat they haven’t achieved since their days as the Hornets. Their projected win total stands at 43.5, with division odds at +255.
The fan community often speculates on the team’s future if Williamson’s health issues persist, with many theories suggesting a potential roster overhaul next summer. This season is therefore critical for the Pelicans, with everything resting on their star players’ availability and ability to perform consistently.
Breakout Candidate: Dyson Daniels
Dyson Daniels showed promising flashes as a solid distributor last season. While CJ McCollum is the primary point guard, the Pelicans have increasingly looked to him for scoring, partly due to injuries. Daniels could see an expanded role, particularly in lightening the point guard load for McCollum or stepping up if injury concerns arise, proving himself as a key rotation piece.
Houston Rockets: A Veteran Infusion for a Youthful Core
The Houston Rockets have been mired in a lengthy rebuild, but the upcoming season promises a significant shift. The arrival of new head coach Ime Udoka is expected to instill much-needed cohesion and defensive discipline, a hallmark of his previous coaching tenure where he led the Boston Celtics to a top-ranked defense.
Houston aggressively pursued veteran talent in the offseason, overspending for Fred VanVleet and acquiring Dillon Brooks in a sign-and-trade, alongside Jeff Green. These additions are designed to provide structure and leadership for their promising young core, which includes Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore from the draft, as well as Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Kevin Porter Jr. is also expected to transition to a valuable sixth-man role.
While a leap to contention might still be a year or two away, these moves suggest a clear intent to improve upon their 22-win season. Their projected win total is 31.5, with highly speculative division odds at +4000. Fan discussions highlight the potential impact of Udoka’s system and the veterans’ influence on the development of their young stars.
Breakout Candidate: Jae’Sean Tate
After an ankle injury limited him to just 31 games last season, Jae’Sean Tate is poised for a bounce-back year. A consistent performer in his first two seasons, Tate could challenge for significant minutes, potentially leading to a more even split with Alperen Sengun at the center spot, especially if his health holds up. His defensive versatility and gritty play make him a valuable asset.
San Antonio Spurs: The Dawn of the Wemby Era
The San Antonio Spurs enter a new epoch, officially ushering in the Victor Wembanyama era after drafting him as the #1 overall pick. The 7’5″ French phenom is the most hyped prospect since LeBron James, and his skills are undeniably real, promising immediate impact, particularly on the defensive end with his shot-blocking and rebounding prowess.
Despite the immense hype, questions linger about Wembanyama’s ability to handle the physicality of an 82-game NBA season and how quickly he will integrate into the Spurs’ system. The team’s strategy remains a slow-play rebuild, and additions like Cedi Osman, Reggie Bullock, and Cameron Payne are primarily marginal, unlikely to drastically alter their win projections. With a projected win total of 29.5, and division odds at +5500, the Spurs are widely expected to remain at the bottom of the division.
However, fan anticipation for Wembanyama’s debut is sky-high, as he promises to make even losing efforts incredibly entertaining. His development, alongside young talents like Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, will be the primary focus for San Antonio this season, as they lay the foundation for a future dynasty.
Breakout Candidate: Zach Collins
While Zach Collins made strides last year, starting every game down the stretch and frequently threatening for 20-point double-doubles, he only started 26 of 63 games played. With Victor Wembanyama’s arrival and a clearer path to minutes, Collins is expected to see a significant increase in his starting opportunities. This elevated role could see him continue his impressive growth, becoming a more consistent and impactful frontcourt presence.
Betting Outlook: Who Takes the Southwest Crown?
The Southwest Division is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in the NBA. While the Memphis Grizzlies have dominated in recent years, Ja Morant’s suspension creates significant uncertainty. Current odds from FanDuel Sportsbook highlight the tight race:
- Memphis Grizzlies: +145
- Dallas Mavericks: +185
- New Orleans Pelicans: +210
- Houston Rockets: +4000
- San Antonio Spurs: +8000
Despite the Morant suspension, the Grizzlies are still favored due to their established core and history of success without him. However, the Dallas Mavericks’ retooled roster and Kyrie Irving’s re-signing make them a strong contender. The New Orleans Pelicans could be a dark horse if their star players, particularly Zion Williamson, can maintain health. The Rockets and Spurs, while improving, remain longshots, primarily focused on player development.
Ultimately, the division winner will likely come down to which team best navigates injuries, integrates new talent, and maintains consistency throughout the season. The fan community is abuzz with predictions, but one thing is certain: the Southwest promises a thrilling contest for supremacy.
