2025 Men’s March Madness odds: Best bets for Duke-Arizona, Houston-Purdue

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

And then there were 16.

The first two rounds of the men’s NCAA Tournament are in the books, and outside a few exciting upsets — like McNeese over Clemson, Drake over Missouri and Arkansas over St. John’s — it’s been mostly chalk city.

That probably won’t change this Thursday and Friday.

My first-round bets finished 4-3 last week, and I’m betting three more games in the coming days. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-leg parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Duke (-9, O/U 153.5) vs. Arizona

Be careful with these upper-echelon teams catching big numbers. Could Caleb Love and Arizona shoot their way to a cover? Sure, but bookmakers are clearly more than fine offering all those points. I’ve said all along that Duke is generally great and teams like that tend to win Tournament games by double digits. Check 2009 North Carolina and 2024 UConn if you don’t believe me. The Blue Devils are better in every facet and I expect a win by 10 or more.

PICK: Duke (-9) to win by more than 9 points

Michigan State (-3.5, O/U 143.5) vs. Ole Miss

Sparty keeps letting lesser teams control games early, then it comes out gang busters in the second half and covers all the numbers. You’re probably still upset if you bet Bryant or New Mexico. Ole Miss boasts a top 25 offense and defense, and it’s the third-best team in America at protecting the ball. It’ll be extremely difficult for MSU to rally back against a team that doesn’t turn it over. And if the Rebels shoot it well from 3, they’ll win outright.  

PICK: Ole Miss (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright

Houston (-8, O/U 132.5) vs. Purdue

After facing mid-major pushovers High Point and McNeese to reach the Sweet 16, Purdue now draws the nation’s No. 1 defense this Friday. To say Houston is a step-up in competition might be the understatement of the year. I believe Purdue’s pace and Houston’s perimeter length will combine to keep this game well under the posted total. According to BetLabs, first-half “Unders” are 28-18-2 (61%) in the last seven Rounds of 16. So, let’s bet that, too.

PICK: Under 132.5 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: First half Under 62.5 points scored by both teams combined

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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