2025 March Madness Sweet 16 best bets, picks by Chris “The Bear” Fallica

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

We’re heading to the Sweet 16 for college basketball, and I’m back with a few wagers for the next round of March Madness hoops. Let’s dive into my picks. 

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas 

I love this Texas Tech team. I know there are concerns about Darrion Williams and his calf and about if Chance McMillian will return. But the Red Raiders have shown they can win by knocking down 3s like they did in the Big 12 tourney. And they’ve also shown they can win when they’re off — like the last game against Drake. 

I get the Arkansas love, I do. But let’s take a look at the draw the Hogs have had so far. Kansas had that game won. Then the Jayhawks suffered a crushing injury to KJ Adams and then turned the ball over four straight possessions. This all led to the Razorbacks pulling the upset. Then St. John’s couldn’t throw one into the ocean in what was a horrible game to sit through. It was more about bad St. John’s than good Arkansas. 

I still think Tech is underappreciated and should the Red Raiders take care of business here, I think they would be super live in the Elite Eight. 

PICK: Texas Tech (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points 

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan 

I’m staying away from the side. And that’s because the thing I am most confident about here is that Auburn will score points. Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin can be exposed defensively and that should lead to a parade of baskets for the Tigers. 

On the flip side, we know Michigan can turn the ball over, but the Wolverines can also knock down 3s, which could result in them hanging around a big number. I’m not interested in playing Plinko. I’ll just take Auburn’s team total Over. 

PICK: Auburn team total Over 80.5 points 

No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida

The narrative is that Florida will just wear down Maryland since the Terps aren’t very deep. I’m not buying it. 

Television timeouts are long. There are so many reviews during these games, that they amount to an extra timeout. Maryland’s starting five is excellent. Remember, too, UConn missed a ton of open looks. Florida was ripe for the upset and the Huskies couldn’t put the hammer down to get it to a three-possession game. 

Maybe Maryland isn’t as suited to muck it up as UConn was, but the Terps sure can score. The assumption is the Gators got their scare and will bounce back here. I’m not so sure. 

PICK: Maryland (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright

NCAA Tournament: The best bets to make in the Sweet 16

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue 

Houston got a bad deal geographically, and we know that. I also don’t think Kelvin Sampson cares one bit. He’ll probably use that as a massive motivator as well. But that won’t be the deciding factor here. 

Houston made a bit of a mess late against Gonzaga, but this team can score — L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp from the perimeter, J’Wan Roberts inside, and the Cougars defend and rebound as always. Can Purdue’s backcourt handle that pressure? Will Trey Kaufman-Renn have as much success inside as he did in the first two rounds? I’m not sure about that. 

The Sweet 16 is usually where trendy underdogs go to die, and I’ll bank on that continuing here. 

PICK: Houston (-8) to win by more than 8 points

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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