Few individual awards in sports generate as much buzz as college football’s Heisman Trophy. With that attention comes strong opinions, heated debates and bold predictions. While the trophy is theoretically awarded to the “best player in college football,” recent history shows it’s far from a purely meritocratic race.
Last season, the award was rightfully given to Colorado’s Travis Hunter, the wide receiver/cornerback who played on both sides of the ball and logged an astonishing 1,443 snaps in just 12 games. Runner-up Ashton Jeanty became the first running back in a decade to earn a Heisman invitation, but he had to put up a herculean effort to get there — finishing second in single-season rushing yards all time, behind only Barry Sanders (1988), a Heisman winner himself.
The recent success of skill-position players has sparked optimism for non-quarterbacks — but let’s not forget: This is still a quarterback award.
Let’s look at data from the last 20 years to understand what it really takes to win the Heisman and identify a few players whom I think have betting value for the award.
The Heisman prototype: What the data shows
Since 2005, 15 of the 20 Heisman winners (75%) have been quarterbacks, and only three running backs and one wide receiver (DeVonta Smith in 2020) have won. The lone outlier is Hunter, an incredibly rare two-way star.
Everyone knows this is a QB award, but let’s poke a bit deeper.
Exposure matters for media and voters: A striking 75% of Heisman winners over the past 20 years played for schools in the Central Time Zone. Why? Prime viewing hours, particularly for East Coast voters, tilt media attention — and thus Heisman hype — toward games that air earlier in the evening.
Team success is also critical: Only five winners in the last 20 years came from teams with three or more losses, and the average number of losses among Heisman winners is just 1.25.
Simply put: If your team isn’t winning, you’re not winning the Heisman.
With those caveats in mind, here are four value bets for the 2025 Heisman Trophy:
Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State Wildcats (40-1 at BetMGM)
After a season full of what-ifs, Johnson was my first Heisman ticket of the offseason. As a sophomore, the dual-threat QB turned heads, and oddsmakers took notice — moving his Heisman odds to 20-1 midseason, the sixth best in the country. A couple of nagging injuries — concussions, ankle sprains — derailed his season, though, and he finished with the 42nd-best QBR in the nation.
Now healthy, he returns to a Kansas State team favored to win the Big 12 and stacked with explosive talent. There’s some concern about national exposure (K-State sometimes draws late time slots), but Johnson’s 37-inch vertical and 4.5 speed scream highlight-reel potential. An early-season breakout — Week 1 vs. Iowa State on ESPN, perhaps — could push him into the national spotlight quickly.
This will be Johnson’s second season as “the guy” after generating buzz as the running QB behind Will Howard in his freshman year. With more experience, a clean bill of health and a long-shot price, he’s a smart value play.
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (40-1)
Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference championship, but its independent schedule — and tough early slate — could help Carr.
The Irish face two major early tests: Week 1 vs. Miami and Week 3 against a top-10 Texas A&M team. Both games offer national exposure and early opportunities to make a statement. If Carr hits the ground running, he’ll build a strong resume, but if the Irish do stumble, head coach Marcus Freeman may be forced to open up the offense to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive. The rest of the schedule softens significantly, with Notre Dame projected as a two-touchdown favorite in nearly every remaining game.
Either the Irish win big from the jump, or they run up the score week after week. Both scenarios are Carr-friendly.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas Longhorns (+600)
No Heisman conversation is complete without mentioning Manning. Yes, the last name draws attention, but there are reasons beyond legacy to take him seriously.
Texas now plays in the SEC, which boasts a $3 billion, 10-year media deal with ESPN/ABC — meaning nonstop exposure. Manning will compete with other SEC QBs like LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Florida’s DJ Lagway, but Texas is an underdog in only two games this season, giving Manning an easier path to success.
He’s not just a media magnet — he can play. Manning filled in multiple times for Quinn Ewers-led offenses and posted a near 68% completion rate, while rushing for two touchdowns on just 18 attempts in SEC play. Factor in the SEC platform, national attention and dual-threat ability, and he’s the chalk pick for a reason at sportsbooks.
Behren Morton, QB, Texas Tech Red Raiders (250-1)
When building your dream Heisman long shot, many variables matter — TV exposure, team success, talent — but the most important is opportunity.
Enter Morton. The Red Raiders ranked sixth nationally in pass attempts per game (41.2) last season, but Morton played the year with a grade 3 AC joint sprain in his shoulder. Imagine this pass-heavy offense with a healthy quarterback.
Tech is projected to win close to nine games, and if Morton is slinging it 45-plus times per week with efficiency, he could post eye-popping numbers early. At 250-1, he’s worth a small dart throw in any Heisman betting portfolio.
