A new AP-NORC poll reveals a stark decline in year-end charitable giving, with only 24% of U.S. adults planning donations amid economic pressures and federal funding cuts. This trend signals deeper consumer financial stress and potential headwinds for nonprofit-dependent sectors.
The latest AP-NORC poll delivers a sobering message for the nonprofit sector and economy watchers: only 24% of U.S. adults are planning year-end charitable contributions. This represents a significant behavioral shift with far-reaching implications for consumer discretionary spending, nonprofit stability, and broader economic health.
Conducted December 4-8, 2025, the survey reveals that approximately half of U.S. adults have already made their charitable contributions for the year. Just 18% report having donated and planning to donate again before year-end, while a mere 6% haven’t given but intend to do so. The remaining 30% represent a growing segment of the population that hasn’t donated and doesn’t plan to.
The Economic Squeeze: Why Donations Are Declining
Multiple economic factors converged to create what amounts to a perfect storm for charitable organizations. The Trump administration’s social services grant cuts created immediate funding gaps that private donors were expected to fill. Simultaneously, households faced weaker income gains and steep price inflation that eroded disposable income, particularly among lower and middle-income families.
Oakley Graham, a 32-year-old from Missouri, exemplifies the financial pressure facing many Americans: “We’ve definitely tightened the financial belt. With student loan debts reactivated and two young children, it’s good if there’s anything left for savings.” His sentiment reflects the reality that essential expenses are crowding out discretionary giving for many families.
The data suggests that economic pressures outweighed potential incentives. Despite a new charitable deduction of up to $1,000 for individuals and $2,000 for married couples included in recent tax legislation, donation rates remain depressed. This indicates that tax benefits alone cannot overcome fundamental budget constraints.
GivingTuesday vs. Black Friday: A Telling Comparison
The poll reveals a stark contrast between consumer spending and charitable behavior. While just under half of Americans reported making Black Friday purchases, only about 1 in 10 donated to charities on GivingTuesday. This 4:1 ratio demonstrates that when budgets are tight, essential consumption takes priority over philanthropic giving.
GivingTuesday, which began as a hashtag in 2012, has grown into a major fundraising event that generated an estimated $4 billion in donations this year. However, its impact appears concentrated among a relatively small segment of committed donors rather than representing broad participation.
The timing of GivingTuesday immediately following Black Friday and Cyber Monday may work against its effectiveness. As Oakley Graham noted, “Most people have probably spent all their spending money at that point.” This sequencing issue suggests nonprofits might benefit from spreading their year-end appeals across multiple timing strategies.
The Checkout Charity Phenomenon: Micro-Donations Gain Traction
While traditional charitable giving shows weakness, the poll found that about 4 in 10 U.S. adults donated to charity when checking out at stores this year. This “round-up” approach proves more accessible to budget-conscious consumers who can manage small increments but lack capacity for larger donations.
Graham explained the appeal: “A couple cents here or there is like—I can do that. It doesn’t sound like much. But I know if everybody did it would make a difference.” This micro-donation model represents an important adaptation to current economic realities, allowing continued participation at reduced levels.
The data shows older adults (those over 60) are more likely to donate at store checkouts than Americans overall, suggesting generational differences in charitable engagement methods.
Donor Strategies: The “Shotgun Approach” and Targeted Giving
The poll reveals diverse approaches to charitable giving among those who continue to donate. Chuck Dietrick, a 69-year-old Texas architect, describes what he calls a “shotgun approach” to year-end giving: “I would rather give a smaller amount of money to a variety of institutions that I care about rather than giving a big chunk of money to one.”
This diversification strategy reflects both practical budgeting and personal connection to causes. Dietrick and his wife give monthly to Valley Hope, a nonprofit addiction services provider where their son received treatment, then support eight additional organizations with end-of-year gifts.
Other donors demonstrated more targeted responses to specific funding crises. Jeannine Disviscour, a 63-year-old Baltimore teacher, increased her donations to organizations she felt “might not continue to get the support they needed,” particularly following federal funding cuts to public broadcasting and refugee services.
Investor Implications: Reading the Charitable Giving Tea Leaves
The decline in charitable giving serves as an important indicator for investors monitoring consumer health and discretionary spending patterns. Several key implications emerge:
- Consumer discretionary squeeze: When charitable giving declines, it often signals broader pressure on non-essential spending across categories including retail, entertainment, and luxury goods.
- Nonprofit sector volatility: Organizations dependent on individual donations may face increased financial instability, particularly those serving populations affected by federal funding cuts.
- Corporate philanthropy impact:
Companies may face increased pressure to fill funding gaps, potentially affecting corporate social responsibility budgets and profitability.
- Tax strategy shifts: The limited response to enhanced charitable deductions suggests tax incentives alone may be insufficient to drive behavioral change in a constrained economic environment.
Historical data from the National Philanthropic Trust indicates that nearly one-third of annual giving typically occurs in December, making this downturn particularly significant for organizations that rely on year-end surges to meet annual budgets.
Sector-Specific Impacts: Where the Pain Is Concentrated
The survey results suggest uneven impact across the nonprofit sector. Organizations with personal connections to donors, such as local charities addressing immediate community needs, may maintain stronger support. As Disviscour noted regarding her donation to a refugee support organization, “There is a gap in funding and there’s more need than ever. And I wanted to step up. And it’s in my community.”
Meanwhile, organizations without strong local connections or those addressing less visible needs may face greater challenges. The data shows most 2025 donors say the amount they gave wasn’t affected much by federal funding cuts or the government shutdown, although about 3 in 10 say those situations did impact their charity selection.
This suggests that while some donors specifically responded to funding crises, the majority maintained their existing giving patterns despite the changed landscape—a concerning finding for organizations trying to adapt to reduced government support.
The Road Ahead: What Declining Giving Signals for 2026
The AP-NORC poll results provide early warning signs for economic observers and nonprofit leaders. The decline in charitable participation, particularly among younger and middle-income donors, suggests structural changes in how Americans approach philanthropy amid economic uncertainty.
For investors, these trends reinforce the importance of monitoring consumer discretionary spending indicators beyond traditional retail metrics. Charitable giving patterns offer unique insights into household financial health and priorities that can inform broader market assessments.
As we move into 2026, the nonprofit sector will likely continue adapting to this new reality through increased emphasis on micro-donation platforms, corporate partnerships, and focused engagement of older, more stable donor bases. These adaptations will create both challenges and opportunities across the social sector and related industries.
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