Myles Garrett is no longer asking the Cleveland Browns for a trade.
Speculation about T.J. Watt’s future with the Pittsburgh Steelers, too, has concluded.
So Micah Parsons, you’re up.
It’s time for the Dallas Cowboys to experience the edge rusher market.
Because four years after the Cowboys awarded the first-ever $40-million-per-year contract to an NFL player (hello, quarterback Dak Prescott), their time is coming to award that size of contract to a non-quarterback.
Garrett made Parsons’ 40-and-up payday a strong likelihood in March when signing a four-year extension worth $160 million, with $123.3 million guaranteed.
Watt all but guaranteed Parsons’ worth in that ballpark as the Steelers agreed to pay him $123 million over three new years of his deal (he has one left on his old contract), including $108 million guaranteed, per multiple reports.
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That’s $40 million per year in new money for Garrett and $41 million for Watt.
Expect Parsons and his agent, David Mulugheta, to settle for nothing less.
The negotiations are not fully parallel, which could complicate an agreement.
Garrett and Watt have track records that date longer than Parsons, each entering his ninth season and third contract compared to Parsons looking for contract No. 2 entering Year 5.
Garrett and Watt have each won Defensive Player of the Year awards, Garrett in 2023 and Watt in 2021, in addition to four All-Pro nods. Even if there is a degree of subjectivity in these accolades, they regularly influence contract negotiations.
Parsons garnered Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2021 and two All-Pro recognitions in his four seasons to date.
But expect the Cowboys to note how much farther Watt and Garrett have gone — while Mulugheta and Parsons will note how much farther they believe Parsons has to go.
Expect Parsons’ camp to remind Dallas that Parsons’ 52.5 sacks outpace Watt’s 49.5 and Garrett’s 42.5 in their first four NFL seasons. Parsons’ 256 tackles in that span outpaces Watt’s 230 and Garrett’s 152; the Dallas star’s 112 quarterback hits are one above Watt’s 111 and well above Garrett’s 83.
Parsons’ 177 pressures best Watt’s 176 and Garrett’s 119 in four years.
Parsons has not exceeded his counterparts’ metrics in every level and in the past four years when all were playing, Garrett and Watt outpaced Parsons in sacks and quarterback hits while he bested them in tackles and pressures.
But Parsons’ camp can argue: If Watt and Garrett earned Defensive Player of the Year awards in their fifth and seventh years, respectively, why would Parsons’ stronger rookie contract production not foretell the same?
The Cowboys will need to assess how much that means to them — and how much they’re willing to pay for his contributions.
The most likely outcome: Dallas pays Parsons and pays him handsomely, on an extension beginning after this year’s fifth-year option contract, that awards Parsons more than Watt’s $41 million per year and more than Garrett’s $123.3 million in guarantees.
If the Cowboys close the deal before the Detroit Lions and 2022 second overall draft pick Aidan Hutchinson, they may not need to factor in yet another record-setting deal. Hutchinson entered the NFL a year after Parsons and played just five games last season before suffering a season-ending broken tibia and fibula. Even so, the Lions have a recent history of closing deals early.
Early deals aren’t the reputation of team owner Jerry Jones, also the general manager. Parsons’ side, too, was unlikely to move until Watt and Garrett reset the market as expected.
Now? The dominoes have fallen for the Cowboys to award a second player in franchise history more than $40 million. It’s not a matter of if; rather, of when.
Thanks to Jerry Jones, there’s no telling the answer to that question.
