Unlike last season, there’s not much new with the College Football Playoff in 2025. And you may want to prepare to get used to this format despite the persistent expansion discussions.
After an expansion from four teams to 12 for the 2024 season, the only change for the 2025 iteration of the College Football Playoff is with the seeding. Last year, the top four conference champions received the four first-round byes no matter where they were ranked in the committee’s final set of rankings.
Texas and Penn State were Nos. 3 and 4 in the rankings but were the No. 5 and 6 seeds since they were at-large teams. Boise State, at No. 9, was the No. 3 seed as the third-highest ranked conference champion and Arizona State was the No. 4 seed even though the Sun Devils were ranked No. 12.
That won’t be duplicated in 2025. While the top five conference champions still get automatic berths to the playoff, the top four seeds will be the top four teams in the rankings no matter if they’re conference champs or not.
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The change likely means that a conference like the Big Ten or SEC will get multiple teams with byes. Had the format been in place in 2024, each conference would have had two teams with byes.
Having a bye wasn’t a great thing, either. All four teams that received byes in 2024 lost their first games of the playoff. Was that attributable to the extended layoff between the regular season and the postseason for those four teams? Was it because all four top seeds were underdogs in the second round? Was it both, along with other factors?
It’s hard to see how all four top seeds will lose in the second round this season after the seeding change. And it’s also hard to see how the playoff will be expanding to 16 teams in the near future.
The conferences are currently at an impasse as the Big Ten is adamant in its support for a playoff format that no one else likes. The conference is advocating for a 16-team playoff that guarantees four bids each to the Big Ten and SEC, while the ACC and Big 12 each get two bids. The remaining four spots would be reserved for the top Group of Five champion and three at-large teams.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti seems enamored with the idea of a play-in tournament for the conference at the end of the season where the third-place team would play the sixth-place team and the No. 4 team would play the No. 5 team for the conference’s final two playoff spots while the two teams playing in the conference title game would be automatically qualified.
“[A record of] 8-4 is a winning percentage,” Petitti said at Big Ten media day. “If you project that winning percentage in every other sport, I’m pretty sure you make the postseason, whether it’s hockey, basketball, anywhere else. That type of winning record — we’ve conditioned ourselves to think that if you’re not a one- or two-loss team, you’re not worthy of competing. There are plenty of teams in professional sports who qualify for the playoffs who can’t get past the first-round game. That’s OK. They still get to play. We’ll figure it out on the field rather than sitting in a room.”
You don’t have to be a die-hard fan to understand that college football is still far different from professional sports, even as players are now getting paid above the table and schools are sharing their revenues with them. The chances of a three- or four-loss team winning the national title are extremely slim.
And none of the other conferences want to cede a playoff spot or two to a Big Ten (or SEC) team with four losses. The SEC’s coaches have advocated for a 16-team playoff that simply adds four more at-large teams and it’s a format favored by Notre Dame, the ACC and the Big 12. Though the Big Ten and the SEC have the playoff power, the Big Ten appears to be outflanked.
And unless the Big Ten backs down, the expansion stalemate is likely to continue. What would that mean? A 12-team playoff for 2026 and maybe beyond.
That wouldn’t be the worst idea. Having just two seasons of a 12-team playoff before expanding again seems foolish. Especially if each of those two seasons were seeded differently.
The push to expand the playoff isn’t due to competitive reasons, it’s because more playoff games equals more TV revenue. Yes, it’s yet another college sports decision being pursued in the name of money.
The disagreement in the chase for the dollar could ultimately work out for college football fans. While four more fan bases would love the opportunity to make the playoff, teams seeded 13-16 aren’t going to be winning four games on the way to the national title.
Instead, the 12-team playoff deserves at least five years or more to establish itself. If teams seeded outside the top 10 consistently make the semifinals, maybe there will be a stronger case for expansion. But there isn’t a very good case now. And that may turn out to be just fine.
