For the third straight year, the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner has dropped for Americans—with the average meal now 5% less expensive than last year, despite major food inflation concerns. Here’s why it’s happening, which regions pay the most, and what this shift signals for holiday cooks and the economy at large.
The Third Annual Drop: What the Numbers Reveal
Thanksgiving 2025 brings relief to Americans’ wallets, as the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that classic dinner costs have declined for the third year in a row. Feeding a group of ten now averages just $55.18, down from $58.08 last year, and well below 2023’s $61.17. That’s a 5% decrease in just twelve months, countering broader food inflation trends sweeping through supermarkets nationwide.
This annual AFBF survey, now in its 40th year, compares identical menus—turkey, stuffing, sides and dessert—allowing a clear, apples-to-apples view of price movements.
Regional Price Gaps: Where Turkey Costs Soar—and Fall
The cost of Thanksgiving dinner isn’t uniform across the U.S.:
- West: $61.75—America’s priciest region
- Northeast: $60.82
- Midwest: $54.38
- South: $50.01—the nation’s most affordable region
This means families in the West pay over 23% more than those in the South for an identical feast.
Why Are Dinner Costs Dropping?
The primary driver is a marked reduction in turkey prices, the centerpiece of the holiday meal. This year, a frozen 16-pound turkey averages $21.50—or just $1.34 per pound—which is a steep 16% drop compared to 2024.
But why the turnaround, especially after supply shocks like avian influenza devastated flocks just a few years prior? Improved flock health, a slow rebuild of turkey populations, and—crucially—a dip in consumer demand are all at play. According to AFBF economist Faith Parum, “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
Grocery chains are also using deep discounts and advertising campaigns to lure shoppers back to turkey, which helps keep retail prices low even as wholesale costs remain elevated. These market dynamics, highlighted in the American Farm Bureau Federation news release, show that classic supply and demand economics, along with aggressive retailer promotions, are working in consumers’ favor.
Beyond the Bird: A Breakdown of Core Food Costs
The AFBF survey drills down into pricing for every major Thanksgiving dish. Here are some notable changes from last year:
- 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.71 (down 9%)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.37 (down 0.8%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.87 (up 3.2%)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $2.03 (up 17.2%)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.56 (down 14.6%)
- Miscellaneous meal ingredients: $3.61 (down 4.7%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.16 (up 0.1%)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.73 (up 16.3%)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $4.00 (up 37%)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.36 (up 61.3%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.28 (down 2.8%)
While most items needed for the big meal saw savings or small price bumps, certain vegetables (like sweet potatoes and prepped veggie trays) jumped notably higher—demonstrating that broader food inflation dynamics are still impacting some sectors.
Competing Views: How Different Surveys Stack Up
An independent Wells Fargo analysis corroborates the downward pressure on holiday dining costs, pegging this year’s Thanksgiving dinner at 2–3% cheaper than last year—even as overall grocery prices increased 2.7% across the country.
However, not every report agrees on the magnitude of savings. The consumer finance site FinanceBuzz, reviewing retail turkey prices from major grocers, places the national average cost of a 15-pound turkey at $34.65 ($2.31/pound)—up from last year’s $2.08/pound. For residents in Washington, the average cost is even higher at $35.35, compared to $30.85 last year, as cited by FinanceBuzz.
These discrepancies are mostly due to differences in methodology: the AFBF survey incorporates store promotions and “loss leader” deals, while FinanceBuzz analyzes regular shelf prices. That means some shoppers—especially bargain hunters—are likely to see double-digit percent savings if they take advantage of retailer deals.
Context and Implications: What This Means for Consumers and the Economy
The sharp drop in the cost of Thanksgiving dinner reflects both effective market responses—such as supermarket promotions and recovering supply after avian flu—and evolving consumer behavior. After grappling with food inflation for years, many families are paying close attention to where they spend, opting into deals and cheaper alternatives where available. This helps curb demand and supports further price relief.
Wells Fargo’s analysis highlights that overall CPI increases in food-at-home expenses are driven mainly by beef and eggs—neither of which are typically the centerpiece of Thanksgiving. This segmentation is important context: even if families feel “food inflation” overall, the iconic turkey dinner is an exception in 2025, providing a psychological and financial lift as the holiday season begins.
Looking forward, continued vigilance from retailers, ongoing recovery in poultry farming, and moderate overall grocery inflation all point toward potential price stability in the years ahead—unless another external shock disrupts the balance.
The Takeaway: Why the 2025 Thanksgiving Report Matters
The annual Thanksgiving Dinner survey is more than a quirky holiday tradition—it’s a real-time snapshot of America’s agricultural recovery, inflation anxiety, and evolving consumer habits. This year’s multi-source price drops offer a rare bright spot for families budget-stretching during the broader economic uncertainty of 2025. While not all food categories saw relief, the sharp dip in turkey costs, especially for those who seek out deals, may help bring more Americans together around the dinner table—and deliver a sense of normalcy to the national calendar.
For deeper analysis, up-to-the-minute news, and trusted context on holiday economics and all major stories, readers turn to onlytrustedinfo.com—where fast, expert-driven reporting always comes first.
