Shares of nuclear power producers Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG), Vistra (NYSE: VST), and Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) (actually, Oklo is more of a nuclear start-up) all moved higher in Monday morning trading. The moves may have been inspired by broader investor enthusiasm in the wake of the Trump administration’s weekend announcement of a temporary lifting of tariffs on China — but that isn’t the only reason nuclear stocks are red-hot today.
As The New York Times reported Friday, the Trump administration is planning to release “several” executive orders aimed at accelerating construction of new nuclear power plants, and reactivation of older ones, in the United States. The actual language of the report, in fact, says the administration is calling for “swift and decisive” action that would cause a “wholesale revision” of federal safety guidelines on construction, aimed at cutting red tape and getting projects moving forward.
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Vistra stock is leading the nuclear pack higher today with a 6% gain as of 10:40 a.m. Constellation is up 5.9%, and Oklo is lagging behind with a 3.3% gain.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today in nuclear news
How big is this nuclear news, and does it justify the stock price moves? According to the Times, the goal is to quadruple nuclear power generating capacity to 400 gigawatts by 2050 — so we’re talking a pretty sizable development here.
More than just the potential for greatly increased revenues from selling all the additional power, the president’s contemplated actions could help out companies like Constellation, Vistra, and Oklo on the cost side as well. As the Times observes, the two most recent nuclear reactors built in the U.S. cost twice their initial construction cost estimates, and took seven years longer than planned to complete — largely because of red tape that slowed the process and added regulatory compliance costs.
Lower cost and higher sales promise to turbocharge profits at these companies. It’s no wonder investors are excited.
Is it time to buy Constellation Energy, Vistra, or Oklo stocks now?
That said, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. According to data from Statista, it takes 11 years to build the average nuclear power plant in the United States. Shave off the “extra” seven years that the last couple of plants took to build, and we’re still looking at the prospect of a plant, announced today, not being completed for four more years — by which time President Trump will be out of office, and U.S. nuclear energy policy may have changed again. So success for these stocks is not guaranteed.
I’m also not particularly impressed with the valuations on all of these stocks, or their dividends. Vistra shares cost 22 times earnings, which isn’t bad, I suppose, especially with analysts forecasting 21% earnings growth over the next five years. But Constellation costs 28 times earnings, and analysts only see it growing earnings at 7% or less. Both these utilities also pay dividend yields of only 0.6%, which seems pretty miserly in a utility stock.
(Oklo, of course, as a start-up, has no P/E at all on which to value the stock. It also pays no dividend).
Still, if you’re dead set on investing in a nuclear stock, of these three, I suspect the safest bet on a promised nuclear renaissance is Vistra. In addition to offering a reasonable PEG ratio near 1.0, Vistra is the only stock of the three to report positive free cash flow — nearly $3 billion over the past year, which gives the stock actually a better price-to-free cash flow ratio than its PEG!
Debt’s still a concern, granted, with Vistra carrying $17 billion more debt than cash on its balance sheet, and that pushes the company’s enterprise value-to-FCF ratio up a bit higher, to 21x. Given the expected growth rate, however — and assuming Vistra hits that growth rate, of course — Vistra stock seems to me to have the best chance of producing a “nuclear winner” for investors.
Should you invest $1,000 in Vistra right now?
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Constellation Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
