Nayib Bukele, El Salvadors authoritarian president, brands himself the “worlds coolest dictator.” But he oversees an increasingly dismal economy. He seems to think that a strong relationship with Donald Trump, a loan from the International Monetary Fund, and the resumption of mining in his gold-rich nation will help him turn things around. But his priorities are misaligned and shortsighted. To make lasting economic improvements for 6.3 million Salvadorans, Bukele must first clean up the countrys polluted water supply.
Bukeles close relationship with Trump has produced short-term financial perks. Shortly after Trump won reelection, El Salvador struck a $1.4 billion loan deal with the IMF without fully reversing Bukeles decision to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. The fund, which previously required a complete about-face on bitcoin during loan negotiations, likely changed its tune due to Trumps support of both bitcoin and Bukele.
The loan will help El Salvador manage its public debt, which peaked at 84.9% of GDP in 2023. But if Bukele wants to reverse his countrys worsening poverty rate, further expand the job market, and attract foreign investment, he needs to do more than woo friends in Washington and secure loans. His country needs a diversified economy, workforce education, and more efficient labor markets. These are ambitious aims in their own right. Dirty water could drown them altogether.
Due to contamination, less than 12% of the countrys rivers can be used for human consumption, irrigation, or animal life. Over 90% of surface water is contaminated by untreated sewage and agricultural and industrial waste. Nearly half of urban households lack access to running water in their homes, and rural water infrastructure is virtually nonexistent.
Many Salvadorans rely on water sources outside their homes, such as rivers or community taps. In the past, these public water sources were war zones where gangs fought to control the countrys limited fresh water supply. Bukeles harsh crackdown on crime, which has left 2% of the nations adult population incarcerated, has vastly improved security, though many prisoners are not afforded a fair trial. Waning gang influence has made it safer for Salvadorans to approach rivers, wash their laundry, and collect drinking water. But dangerous pollution persists.
To prevent excrement contamination in rivers and lakes, the government needs to invest in more sewage treatment plants and water piping, especially beyond the capital, San Salvador. Additionally, the government should invest in equipment and personnel to monitor agricultural and industrial runoff. El Salvadors General Water Resources Law, enacted in 2021, does little to reach these aims.
Historically, mining has been a major source of water pollution throughout the country, so much so that in 2017, the government banned metal mining, the first such ban in the world. But Bukeles government reversed the ban in December. The move will mostly benefit foreign extraction companies eager to access El Salvadors gold reserves (which Bukele says are valued at $3 trillion), while only a small portion of the earnings will likely stay in-country.
Metal mining will further contaminate the countrys largest river, the Lempa, and other water sources with toxins like cyanide, a chemical used for gold extraction. Lifting the mining ban may produce quick cash but will likely thwart El Salvadors future economic stability and the health of its citizens.
Bukele is a fan of quick fixes, though. His unconstitutional mass arrest tactics have swiftly brought security to a country once known as the murder capital of the world. His popularity among Salvadorans has soared, but the root causes of El Salvadors violent past have not been resolved.
If water security worsens, Bukele may learn, like so many others, how quickly Trump can end a bromance. Though Trump typically praises Bukele for being “very tough on crime” (as he did after Bukele recently offered to jail deportees from the U.S. in El Salvadors mega-prisons), he has also criticized Bukele.
During his speech at the Republican National Convention last July, Trump said Bukele is “sending all of his criminals, his drug dealers, his people that are in jails” to the U.S. “Hes trying to convince everybody what a wonderful job he does in running the country. Well, he doesnt do a wonderful job.” If low wages and polluted waters send a wave of Salvadoran migrants to the U.S., a frustrated Trump could turn on Bukele in short order.
Even the “worlds coolest dictator,” who has watched poverty rise during his presidency, cannot afford the political cost of a spiraling economy and an unlivable environment.
A recent pat on the back from Trump, a loan from the IMF, and revenues from gold mining wont fix Bukeles problems. Eventually, safe streets will be a small consolation to thirsty Salvadorans. Until Bukele gets serious about water, his countrys economy will continue to falter. Before long, his popularity – at home and abroad – could falter with it.
Addison Graham is global affairs correspondent for RealClearPolitics.
