June’s inflation bump may be the first sign that tariffs are starting to affect prices, but the real squeeze for consumers may still be ahead.
The Labor Department announced July 15 that the annual inflation rate climbed to 2.7% in June, the highest since February. That is thanks to a variety of rising prices including those for housing, food, and gasoline. Costs also rose for categories that often rely on imports including clothes, shoes, audio equipment, and toys.
James Knightley, chief international economist at Dutch bank ING, said he expected it would be three months after tariffs were implemented in April and May before they began showing up forcefully in consumer price index reports.
“These are some chunky moves and do suggest perhaps that we are seeing some preemptive repricing. Our fear is that this is quite early for that tariff effect to be coming through,” Knightley said. “We perhaps should be braced for some further increases in prices over the next few months.”
There is no single way to predict how businesses will price items weeks or months into the future as, in addition to tariffs, they are influenced by things like consumer demand, sales strategies, and supply chains.
For consumers trying to plan what to buy when, experts advise them to stock up on essentials when they see good prices, look out for deals on items they want but don’t immediately need to have, and use time-tested cost saving tricks like coupons or price tracking for their purchases.
More: Trump announces tariff hikes on 14 countries including Indonesia and South Africa
What tariffs could mean for your budget
Whether it’s sooner or later, economists suspect tariffs will make things even more expensive for U.S. consumers. Costs are expected to rise as retailers’ imported inventory bought at pre-tariff prices runs out.
If President Donald Trump follows through on plans to resume sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries in August and acts on his other threats, goods could – then – get even more expensive.
At that point, Knightly imagines more companies, especially small businesses, may more readily pass tariff costs onto consumers, accepting them as part of a new reality.
“A lot of retailers are trying to hold off as long as they can before passing it off,” he said. “Large retailers with large warehousing, large store bases, have got better capacity to hold on before raising prices, but smaller independent companies just don’t have that.”
The sweeping tariffs Trump has threatened to impose or resume vary in size, but some far exceed the 10% baseline.
“The levels they’re talking about, they’re going to need to be passed through to the consumer in whole or in part,” said Katherine Black, a partner at the global management consulting firm Kearney. “They’re not rates that can be just absorbed by a retailer or a supplier.”
What prices could go up?
If tariffs currently implemented remain in place, Knightley and Black agreed things made with steel and aluminum are likely to increase in price. If you’re in the market for a car, Knightley said he imagines it may make sense to buy one sooner rather than later. Black said she expects tariffs will also affect electronics, apparel, and seasonal merchandise including decor.
Consumers appear to be speeding up their purchases to get ahead of price hikes. U.S. retail sales increased 0.6% last month, exceeding expectations for June according to Bankrate Senior Industry Analyst Ted Rossman.
“If anything, tariff fears seem to be accelerating sales, at least in the near term,” Rossman said in a written comment. “Car sales were up 6.5% year-over-year in June and furniture sales rose 4.5%, further suggesting that consumers are accelerating certain big-ticket purchases they fear will become more expensive, as we saw during the spring.”
If Trump imposes the tariffs he has threatened, prescription drug costs could climb, coffee could get more expensive, and vehicle prices could rise even higher as car manufacturers rely on imported parts. Black said she expects to see some “pretty significant” price increases across the board.
“It may not happen right away. If it’s Aug. 2 and you’re not seeing a huge price increase I don’t think that means you can breathe a sigh of relief,” Black said. “I would expect to start to see some price increases then but even more later in the season.”
How to shop smart
While it may be difficult to entirely avoid price increases, consumers can still shop strategically.
“It’s a matter of taking advantage of those promotional periods,” said Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance. “It’s just trying to be probably a bit more thoughtful.”
He advises consumers make the most of end-of-summer or back-to-school deals and sales tax holidays.
Knightley said some companies may have raised their prices preemptively right now to give themselves some breathing room so that they can have a Labor Day sale, in which case it could make sense to delay a purchase.
Consumers can score deals using browser extensions like CamelCamelCamel which helps users track Amazon prices and Capital One Shopping which helps users compare prices across retailers. USA TODAY also picks and highlights coupons monthly that help people stretch their money.
Black advised consumers to prioritize what essentials they really need and to purchase them now.
“On discretionary purchases, I would hold off to assess your personal situation, how tariffs are going to be,” Black said. “You don’t always know what you’re going to need a couple months from now, so I’d keep some powder dry for those months and go ahead and buy anything essential now.”
Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How tariffs could affect your budget and ways to shop smart
