Week 9 of the college football season has been a whirlwind of upsets and narrow escapes, significantly clarifying some aspects of the postseason picture while leaving others in thrilling suspense. The most surprising development? Ole Miss has reportedly emerged as a “lock team” for the College Football Playoff in one projection, capitalizing on a favorable schedule and key personnel changes. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses like Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State continue their dominant runs, setting the stage for a dramatic finish to the 2023-24 season.
As November looms, the once-distant dreams of bowl season are now squarely in focus. Gone are the days when bowl committees would court teams weeks in advance, a process that could sometimes lead to less-than-ideal matchups. Today, most teams await their fate until Selection Sunday on December 8th, ensuring a more dynamic and competitive landscape, as noted in a recent projection for the 2024 season. However, Week 9 has already provided a substantial preview of what’s to come, with analysts dissecting every win, loss, and narrow escape.
The latest AP Top 25 poll, a key guide for bowl projections, reflects the week’s intense action. According to the Associated Press, the rankings after Week 9 saw Georgia holding the top spot, followed by Michigan, Ohio State, and Florida State rounding out the top four. Other notable teams in the top 10 included Washington, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Alabama, and Penn State. These rankings form the backbone of the intricate bowl projection puzzle.
Ole Miss: The Unforeseen CFP ‘Lock Team’ After Week 9
Perhaps the most unexpected twist in the Week 9 bowl projections comes from a USA Today analysis, which surprisingly pegs Ole Miss as a potential “lock team” for the College Football Playoff. The Rebels’ 7-1 record, highlighted by a significant victory over Oklahoma, has propelled them into this conversation. This projection suggests that Lane Kiffin’s squad has benefited from a combination of factors, including a more manageable remaining schedule and key player developments.
According to USA Today, the Rebels’ path to the postseason appears clearer than many other contenders, with upcoming home games against South Carolina, The Citadel, and Florida. Even a challenging regular-season finale against Mississippi State could potentially secure them a spot in the SEC title game. The article also highlights an injury to Austin Simmons, which allowed Trinidad Chambliss to step in as the team’s starting quarterback, a move that seemingly has paid dividends for Ole Miss. This unexpected rise puts Oklahoma, the team the Rebels defeated, in an uphill battle for a playoff berth.
Defining Moments: Week 9’s Impact on Top Contenders
Week 9 was fraught with high-stakes matchups and nail-biting finishes that tested the mettle of many top teams:
- Ohio State solidified its standing by prevailing over Penn State in a critical Big Ten clash, showcasing the talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. and a formidable defense.
- USC’s defensive struggles continued, leading to a late-game loss against Utah, further complicating their postseason aspirations.
- In a major upset, North Carolina’s undefeated season came to an abrupt end with a surprising home loss to 2-5 Virginia.
- Several teams narrowly avoided upsets, including Washington with a late pick-six against Arizona State, Oklahoma surviving UCF, Florida State overcoming a deficit against Duke, Texas holding off Houston, and Alabama staging a comeback against Tennessee.
These results mean the battle for the top four CFP spots remains intense, with analysts like Jason Mowry and ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach offering varied projections.
Diverse Projections for the 2023-24 College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six
The paths to the CFP and New Year’s Six bowls are far from singular, with experts presenting different scenarios after Week 9. Here’s a look at some of the leading predictions:
College Football Playoff Semifinals (2023-24 Season)
- Jason Mowry (Icon Sportswire):
- Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Texas
- Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Florida State
- ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura:
- Peach Bowl (December 31): Georgia vs. TCU
- Fiesta Bowl (December 31): Ohio State vs. Clemson
- ESPN’s Mark Schlabach:
- Peach Bowl (December 31): Georgia vs. Clemson
- Fiesta Bowl (December 31): Ohio State vs. Tennessee
Both Bonagura and Schlabach project a Georgia vs. Ohio State National Championship, highlighting the consistent strength of these two programs. Schlabach, in particular, expressed excitement for a potential Tennessee-Ohio State shootout in the Fiesta Bowl, given both teams’ high-powered offenses and intriguing defensive questions, as detailed by ESPN.
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections (2023-24 Season)
Beyond the CFP, the New Year’s Six bowls promise compelling matchups:
- Cotton Bowl: Washington vs. Oklahoma (Mowry), UCLA vs. Tulane (Bonagura), USC vs. Tulane (Schlabach).
- Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State (Mowry).
- Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. Ohio State (Mowry), North Carolina vs. Alabama (Bonagura), North Carolina vs. Illinois (Schlabach).
- Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Air Force (Mowry).
- Rose Bowl: A consistent pick by both Bonagura and Schlabach is Michigan vs. Oregon, a nod to the traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-12 pairing that many fans cherish.
Teams on the Rise and Fall
Week 9 served as a crucible for many teams, elevating some while diminishing the hopes of others:
- Tennessee earned significant praise from Bonagura for their dominant 44-6 win over No. 19 Kentucky, reinforcing their national title contender status.
- Notre Dame also made strides, according to Schlabach, bouncing back from a rough start to win five of their last six, including an upset of No. 16 Syracuse.
- On the other hand, Oklahoma State took a significant hit to their New Year’s Six bowl hopes after a crushing 48-0 shutout loss to Kansas State, a performance both Bonagura and Schlabach deemed a major setback.
A Look Ahead: 2024 Bowl Projections and Notable Matchups
Beyond the current season, early projections for the 2024 college football season offer intriguing potential matchups. The College Football Playoff is set to expand, bringing new dynamics to the postseason. For instance, one projection lists exciting CFP First Round games for 2024:
- No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Texas: A rekindling of a fierce rivalry.
- No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Ohio State: A historic first meeting.
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State: Another first-time matchup.
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee: A rare postseason clash for these traditional powers.
The quarterfinals for 2024 also hint at thrilling possibilities, such as Boise State/Penn State vs. BYU in the Fiesta Bowl, or Notre Dame/Tennessee vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl, where the Fighting Irish have only been twice, and the Volunteers haven’t played since 1944. These projections highlight the enduring appeal of traditional rivalries and the excitement of new matchups in an evolving postseason landscape.
The Road Ahead: Week 10 and Beyond
The college football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Week 10 is poised to deliver more game-changing results. Key matchups to watch include Oklahoma’s challenging trip to Tennessee, a pivotal game between Vanderbilt and Texas, and a significant Big 12 showdown between Utah and Cincinnati. These games, along with Texas Tech’s dangerous visit to Kansas State, will continue to shape the bowl picture as teams fight for every possible advantage. The excitement is palpable as we head into the crucial final weeks of the regular season, culminating in conference championship games that will undoubtedly determine many bowl fates.
