Walker Buehler, once a Dodgers ace, now with the Padres, claims his elbow pain disappeared mysteriously four weeks ago—a baffling development years after his second Tommy John surgery. Can this enigmatic recovery signal a career resurgence at age 31?
For Walker Buehler, the road back from Tommy John surgery has been a labyrinth of pain, uncertainty, and now, a startling mystery. The right-handed pitcher, who signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres in mid-February, made his spring training debut on Thursday, allowing two earned runs over three innings with four strikeouts. Yet the real story emerged post-game when Buehler dropped a bombshell: his elbow, which had plagued him for years following a second surgical procedure, simply stopped hurting about four weeks ago.
“About four weeks ago, my elbow just stopped hurting,” Buehler told reporters. “That’s a new one for me. … Things have kind of ticked up from there.” This sudden, pain-free state is unprecedented in his recovery journey, leaving even Buehler himself scratching his head. He admitted to trying “every treatment and supplement and vitamin” imaginable, and while he’s grateful, he’s also “a little scared” because he doesn’t know what exactly resolved the issue.
This revelation reshapes the narrative around one of baseball’s most perplexing comeback stories. At 31, Buehler is no longer the dominant force he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he became a two-time All-Star (2019, 2021) and a perennial Cy Young candidate, finishing fourth in the National League voting in 2021. That peak was followed by his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, a procedure that derailed his trajectory and sent him into a turbulent search for his former self.
His post-surgery path has been a rollercoaster. Buehler sealed the Dodgers’ 2024 World Series victory with bullpen heroics in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium, a moment of pure clutch performance. Yet, the broader 2024 season was a struggle; he posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts, a clear indicator that his stuff and command were not yet back to form. Seeking a reset, he signed a one-year, $21 million prove-it deal with the Boston Red Sox last season, only for it to end in disaster. Boston released him in late August after a 7-7 record and a 5.45 ERA in 23 appearances, a debacle that summed up his ongoing inconsistencies.
A late-season lifeline came from the Philadelphia Phillies, where Buehler excelled in a small sample: 3-0 with a microscopic 0.66 ERA in three outings. This flicker of his past brilliance offered hope but also underscored his fragility. Now, with the Padres, he’s among several pitchers—including veteran Germán Márquez and former Met Griffin Canning—competing for the back end of San Diego’s rotation. The Padres, desperate for pitching depth, are taking a low-risk flier on a pitcher who could either reignite his career or become a cautionary tale.
The mystery of Buehler’s sudden pain relief dovetails with insights from a teammate also navigating Tommy John recovery. Joe Musgrove, who underwent the procedure in 2022, recently shared with The Athletic that pitchers he’s spoken with typically don’t feel fully back to normal until “the two-year mark.” Buehler concurs, noting his first surgery at age 21 was an outlier—he got stronger and felt better than ever afterward—but the second timeline “checks out,” and his own recovery might even be more delayed.
This medical timeline is critical. Tommy John surgery, or ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, carries a typical 12-18 month return for pitchers, but full recovery—where a pitcher regains pre-injury stuff and durability—can take longer, often up to two years or more. Buehler’s second surgery came after the 2021 season, meaning we’re now over three years removed, yet he’s only now experiencing complete pain absence. That lag highlights the unpredictable nature of elbow rehabilitation, where nerve regeneration, scar tissue maturation, and neuromuscular adaptation can extend the process.
From a fan perspective, Buehler’s journey is rich with “what-ifs.” Had he stayed healthy with the Dodgers, could he have added another Cy Young or World Series ring? His 2024 postseason performance with Los Angeles—closing out Game 5—hinted at a late-career renaissance, but his regular-season inconsistency told a different story. The Red Sox experiment, a $21 million gamble, failed spectacularly, raising questions about his ability to handle a full workload. The Phillies’ brief but brilliant stint suggested the stuff was still there in spurts, but sustainability was the unknown.
Now, with the Padres, Buehler is not just fighting for a roster spot; he’s battling against time and doubt. San Diego’s rotation, while competitive, has openings, and his spring debut was a solid, if unspectacular, start. More importantly, the absence of pain is a psychological boost as much as a physical one. Pitchers often describe the mental toll of lingering discomfort; a clear elbow can restore confidence in throwing without fear.
The Padres-Dodgers rivalry adds another layer. Buehler spent his prime years in Los Angeles, becoming a fan favorite and a key piece of their championship core. Facing the Dodgers as a Padre—even in spring training—would carry emotional weight. If he can harness his past success, he could provide veteran depth for a Padres team aiming for a playoff run, while also seeking personal vindication.
What does this mean for baseball? Buehler’s case is a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not linear. Age 31 is not old for a pitcher, but two major elbow surgeries accelerate the wear and tear. His willingness to experiment with treatments and supplements—he mentions trying everything—shows a desperation to solve the puzzle. The sports science community will watch closely: if his pain stays away and his performance improves, it could offer hope for others in similar situations.
Yet, caution is warranted. A few pain-free weeks do not guarantee long-term health or peak performance. Mechanics, workload management, and luck all play roles. The Padres will likely monitor him closely, perhaps limiting his innings early in the season. But for now, the mere fact that Buehler can pitch without pain is a victory.
In the grand scheme, Walker Buehler embodies resilience. From All-Star heights to the uncertainty of rehab, he’s navigated a storm few can imagine. His cryptic recovery—the elbow that “just stopped hurting”—may be the twist that propels him back toward relevance. As he competes with Germán Márquez and Griffin Canning for a rotation spot, baseball fans will watch with bated breath: is this the start of a remarkable comeback, or a fleeting moment before the next setback?
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