(The Center Square) – Elected officials within the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council have expressed reluctance to adopt a rate of assumed revenue growth that would presume an extra $1 billion in the state’s coffers during the 2027-29 biennium.
However, depending on feedback from the State Attorney General’s Office, they legally may not have a choice on the matter.
Among ERFC’s responsibilities is to adopt forecasted revenue growth for budgetary purposes. Under Washington state law, the operating budget cannot spend more money than what is projected within the four-year timeframe, which includes supplemental operating budgets.
However, that state law also allows the Legislature to use a 4.5% assumed revenue growth if ERFC’s forecast is lower. House Bill 1411, sponsored during this legislative session by ERFC members Reps. Travis Couture, R-Allyn, and Ed Orcutt, R-Kalama, sough to change that.
The bill would have restricted operating budget spending only to what has been actually projected by ERFC, which the bill sponsors believed would avoid budgetary crises moving forward. However, the bill did not receive a public hearing.
Speaking at ERFC’s Thursday meeting, Orcutt spoke against using the 4.5% assumed revenue growth for the 2027-29 biennium, which he noted was not used for the conference budgets.
“I think this is a safer assumption to go with, especially with some of the questions … with what’s going on at the national level,” he said. “Whether you agree with tariffs or not, there is some indication that that may be causing some differences in the [economic] outlook. I do think that it is warranted for us to take a little bit more cautious approach.”
“That was part of the budget problem we had before,” he added. “So even though we didn’t eliminate that from statute, which I think we should do and should have done, I do think that that’s the way the budget was written, and I think it is the better approach, especially in these times.”
However, concerns were raised by ERFC Executive Director Dave Reich at the meeting, who said not including the 4.5% assumption could violate state law, since it is higher than ERFC’s revenue. As of March, ERFC forecasts annual revenue to be less than 4.5% through fiscal year 2029; the current fiscal year’s assumed revenue growth is 2.8%.
“We haven’t had a chance to do any legal research as to whether or not we can make the choice not to do that,” Reich said. “There’s a little bit of a risk there. It has been done in the past prior biennium…so there is some precedent for doing it.”
ERFC members ultimately voted to have staff prepare outlooks with and without the 4.5% assumption, while also directing staff to seek counsel from the AGO as to whether or not they are required to use that assumption.
