A new move by a Utah judge ordering the Legislature to redraw its congressional maps is the latest turn in an ongoing saga over redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
And this latest development could help Democrats.
Back in 2018, Utah voters narrowly passed a ballot measure known as Proposition 4. The effort focused on bringing about an independent redistricting commission while also putting in place “requirements on the Legislature’s redistricting process.” At the same time, it also prohibited “the commission or Legislature from favoring or disfavoring incumbent elected officials or from considering partisan political information,” according to voter information documents from the state.
At issue in the case decided Monday, according to court filings, was whether a bipartisan state law passed in 2020 had “unconstitutionally impaired” the voter-passed proposition.
Utah Judge Dianna Gibson ruled against the Legislature Monday, writing in a decision that “the Legislature is directed to design and enact a remedial congressional redistricting map in conformity with Proposition 4’s mandatory redistricting standards and requirements.” The latest ruling sets up a short window this fall to make changes, although it’s unclear how appeals may impact that process and final deadline.
Although it’s unrelated, the ruling comes amid redistricting battles across the country that were jumpstarted by the GOP effort this summer to try and help President Trump by making it easier for Republicans to maintain control of the U.S. House for the final years of his second term.
What could the Utah ruling mean for control of the U.S. House?
Utah has four U.S. House seats, all of which are represented by Republicans. But during the 2018 midterms, voters in one Utah district narrowly sent a Democrat to the House. The House Democrats’ campaign arm immediately reacted to Monday’s news about the ruling.
“In throwing out the current, gerrymandered congressional map, voters in Utah will now have an opportunity to elect leaders that best represent their values, and not have their representation dictated by politicians,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement.
It remains to be seen how the redistricting back and forth between Republicans and Democrats will affect campaigns, but the GOP majority at the moment is incredibly narrow. If the same lines used in the 2024 election were used again, Democrats could gain control of the House by winning back as few as three seats in the 2026 midterms.
Partisan tensions over congressional lines have been rising.
Utah’s senior GOP U.S. Sen. Mike Lee on Monday lambasted the court’s decision, saying in a lengthy social media thread, “This is a great day for Utah’s Democrats—who haven’t controlled the Utah legislature in many, many decades (because most Utah voters don’t like what the Democratic Party is selling), and have found a clever way to even the score by enlisting the help of their judicial allies.”
“But it’s a terrible day for everyone else—and for the rule of law,” Lee said.
The case that led to Monday’s ruling started long before this summer’s national redistricting drama but is now a part of the discussion. Last week Texas Republicans followed through on a quest to please Mr. Trump by passing redrawn congressional lines that take five Democratic seats in the state and make them more favorable to Republicans.
The GOP quest isn’t limited to Texas, though. Republicans in Indiana and Missouri are also facing a push to redraw their maps, where smaller pickup opportunities of Democratic districts are possible if changes are made to favor Republicans.
California Democrats, led Gov. Gavin Newsom, have responded by asking voters this fall to help redraw congressional lines in the state that would shift five GOP held seats and change them in ways that could help Democrats win some or all of them in next fall’s midterms.
The back and forth has made it more difficult to assess how the races for the House may play out next year. What’s certain, however, is that the House is viewed by Democrats as their best chance at winning back power for the final two years of Mr. Trump’s second term in Washington. And given how close the margin for control has been between Democrats and Republicans in the House in recent years, every winnable seat could make a difference.
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