Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been a standout performer in 2025, climbing 18% year-to-date, driven by its dominance in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. After delivering staggering returns in recent years, the company continues to capture investor enthusiasm as AI adoption accelerates globally.
However, earlier this year, concerns over U.S. chip export restrictions and broader market volatility caused a temporary dip. Now, with the stock rebounding and AI demand surging, the question is whether Nvidia can maintain its upward trajectory through the rest of 2025. Let’s explore whether Nvidia’s stock can rise even further in the second half of the year.
Key Points in This Article:
Nvidia’s (NVDA) 18% stock surge in 2025 reflects its AI chip dominance, riding the wave of global AI adoption.
Despite early-year volatility from export restrictions, NVDA’s rebound signals strong investor confidence in its growth.
The question looms whether can Nvidia sustain its upward trajectory and climb higher through the end of 2025?
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A Long-Term Investor’s Perspective
As a buy-and-hold investor, I seek companies with durable competitive advantages and consistent growth potential. Nvidia fits this mold, but I remain vigilant. If a company’s core business were to face irreversible decline, I would consider selling. Yet, Nvidia’s leadership in AI, robust financials, and innovation cadence make it a stock I can hold onto indefinitely.
Nvidia’s Evolution and Market Dominance
Nvidia’s journey from a gaming-focused chipmaker to an AI juggernaut is remarkable. Its graphics processing units (GPUs), originally designed for rendering video game visuals, proved ideal for AI’s parallel computing needs.
The introduction of the CUDA platform expanded Nvidia’s reach into data centers, autonomous vehicles, and AI infrastructure. Today, its GPUs power the AI ambitions of tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which rely on Nvidia’s chips for training and deploying advanced AI models.
In Nvidia’s fiscal 2026 first quarter, the AI powerhouse reported $44.1 billion in revenue, a 69% year-over-year increase, with its data center segment soaring 73% to $39.1 billion. Despite a $4.5 billion charge from U.S. export controls on its H20 chips to China, Nvidia’s profitability remains strong, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.96, exceeding expectations. It also continues to invest heavily in AI technology.
Why Nvidia Could Climb Higher
Several catalysts suggest Nvidia’s stock has room to grow in 2025. First, its valuation is attractive, trading at approximately 36 times forward earnings, down from higher multiples earlier this year. This provides a reasonable entry point for investors betting on Nvidia’s long-term growth.
Second, the Blackwell platform, launched recently, has seen unprecedented demand, generating $11 billion in its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 alone. The upcoming Blackwell Ultra, set for release in late 2025, promises enhanced performance, further solidifying Nvidia’s edge in AI inference and training.
U.S. export restrictions pose a challenge, though, with an estimated $8 billion revenue loss in Q2 due to halted H20 sales to China. However, Nvidia is countering this by developing a lower-cost Blackwell-based chip for the Chinese market, expected to launch soon.
The Trump administration, however, is scrutinizing those workarounds, since they conform to the letter of the export ban but not its spirit. It seeks to crack down on chip exports to Malaysia and Thailand to halt chip smuggling through those countries. The goal is to prevent China from gaining the capabilities needed to compete with U.S. chip technology.
Additionally, new partnerships in regions like the Middle East and Taiwan could offset losses, with projects like the UAE’s 5-gigawatt AI data center highlighting global demand.
The broader AI market also fuels optimism. Analysts project the AI chip market could exceed $1.3 trillion by 2032, driven by infrastructure investments and emerging applications like AI agents and autonomous vehicles. Nvidia’s automotive segment, for instance, grew 72% to $567 million in Q1, with projections of reaching $5 billion in 2025. Major cloud providers, including Microsoft and Google, are committing billions to AI infrastructure, ensuring sustained demand for Nvidia’s GPUs.
A Bright Outlook
Despite headwinds from export curbs, Nvidia’s innovation, diversified revenue streams, and leadership in a booming AI market position it for further gains. The stock’s recent Golden Cross, a bullish technical signal, underscores positive momentum.
While volatility may persist, Nvidia’s ability to exceed earnings forecasts, expand globally, and capitalize on AI’s growth trajectory makes it a compelling hold. I believe Nvidia will not only sustain its 18% gain but could climb significantly higher by year-end, driven by strong fundamentals and unrelenting AI demand.
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