President Trump’s tax and spending megabill could speed up insolvency for Social Security’s trust funds, according to an analysis from the Trump administration’s chief actuary for the program.
The Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) at the Social Security Administration (SSA) released an analysis this week of the law’s potential effects on the program’s finances in response to a request from Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.), the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.
The report estimated that implementation of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act would “result in net increased program cost” beginning this year, while noting the spate of recent tax changes in the major package.
“Because the revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits is directed to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, implementation of the OBBBA will have material effects on the financial status of the Social Security trust funds,” the report stated.
With the recent tax changes, the office projected depletion of the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds will accelerate from “the third quarter of 2034” under the recent board of trustees’ report baseline to “the first quarter of 2034 following implementation of the law.”
A closer look at just the OASI Trust Fund found its reserve depletion date could accelerate “from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032,” while the DI Trust Fund reserves “are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period” when both funds are considered separately.
However, both accounts have usually been considered as a combined fund when discussing the program’s solvency, as lawmakers have allowed for interfund borrowing between accounts to temporarily extend solvency in the past.
The analysis projected that the total net increase in OASDI program cost through 2034 would amount to $168.6 billion, as it estimates the trust funds will begin to see lower levels of tax revenue of Social Security benefits starting this year.
The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment.
The actuary also projected implementation of the law would “decrease (worsen) the 75-year OASDI actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll.”
The office notes the analysis is limited to the effects of the income tax changes and how they’ll affect “taxation of benefits revenue to the trust funds.”
It added that it will use the results of the analysis as an updated baseline when evaluating “effects of proposals that affect the OASI and DI Trust Funds, and particularly proposals intended to extend solvency, starting now and until the issuance of the 2026 Trustees Report next year.”
“The 2026 Trustees Report will incorporate the latest data, assumptions, and methods available at the time of its development, in addition to possible refinements in our understanding of the effects of the OBBBA,” the analysis states.
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