President Trump’s use of federal resources to combat crime in the nation’s capital is forcing Democrats to once again address the issue of law and order, something that has been a vulnerability for them in recent elections.
Democrats were quick to note — following Trump’s announcement Monday that he would federalize the city’s police force and deploy the National Guard — that violent crime in Washington, D.C., is down.
However, Republicans see the message as a winning one as signs suggest voters are concerned about crime regardless, leading some Democrats to warn their party against falling into the same political trap some see as having damaged them in the past.
“My advice to Democrats is don’t take the bait,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nellis noted that voters could still feel strongly about crime even as statistics show improvement in metropolitan areas like D.C., thereby opening Democrats up to easy attacks from the GOP.
“All of the crime numbers suggest that violent crime is down in every major city. I don’t think that people are going to believe that,” he said. “I’m not saying that the numbers are wrong; it’s just that the perception is what it is.”
Republicans have been quick to seize on that perception. One GOP operative compared the party’s messaging on crime to how it framed inflation under the Biden administration, saying: “At the end of the day, it’s how voters feel.”
Polls show Republicans have the upper hand on the crime issue. According to a CNN survey released in June, 40 percent of voters said the GOP’s views on crime are closer to their own, while 27 percent said the same about Democrats.
“It’s obviously a winning an argument for Republicans, especially anytime we’re talking about crime in Democrat-run cities,” the national Republican operative said.
Republicans have touted the president’s announcement, pointing to their own experiences in the city.
“In the Navy Yard where I stay when I’m in D.C., a member of Congress was carjacked, staffers have been assaulted and robbed, an Uber eats driver was killed by two 15-year old girls in a botched carjacking and retail stores closed because they were robbed so many times,” Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) said in a post on social platform X.
However, the president’s critics and many Democrats have pointed to statistics showing that violent crime is down in the nation’s capital.
According to data reported by the Metropolitan Police Department, the District of Columbia saw a 15 percent drop in crime and 35 percent drop in violent crime from 2023 to 2024 following a spike in 2023.
But there is still a perception among voters across the country that crime remains an issue.
According to a Gallup poll conducted in March, 47 percent of respondents said they believe they worry “a great deal” about crime and violence. That figure is down from 53 percent in March of last year. Another 28 percent of respondents said in March they worry “a fair amount” about crime and violence, up 2 points from 26 percent from last year.
Nellis, the Democratic strategist, encouraged the party to focus on other issues, like the economy, health care and corruption.
Trump’s announcement on taking action to fight crime in D.C. comes as the administration is grappling with less-than-desirable economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released numbers Tuesday showing inflation holding firm in July amid the implementation of the president’s tariffs. And earlier this month, data from the BLS showed the economy added 73,000 jobs in July, well below economists’ expectations of around 100,000.
Additionally, Trump and his team have been plagued with questions about his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, which has led to rare scrutiny from his own political base.
“Trump’s in a pretty tough political position,” one Democratic strategist said. “When he’s backed up against the wall, he wants to change the terrain.”
In addition to focusing on hitting Trump on the economy, many Democrats are also encouraging incumbents and candidates to emphasize their own record on combatting crime.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily super helpful to go up to voters and be like ‘here’s a graph,’” a Democratic operative said. “That is just not proven effective.”
Democrats point to a number of examples of their members being tough on crime, including Reps. Don Davis (N.C.) and Gabe Vasquez (N.M.).
In June, Davis pushed back on a move to disband the town of Snow Hill’s police department, while Vasquez introduced legislation last month that would target organized crime in border communities.
But Republicans argue Democrats are automatically defined by progressives members of their party who have called for defunding the police, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Democratic New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.
“Trusting a Democrat to handle crime is like asking the fox to guard the henhouse,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Voters know they’re less safe in Democrat-run cities, and no amount of spin can cover up their long record of backing Defund the Police, Abolish ICE, and every other pro-criminal policy in the book.”
The House Democratic campaign arm released its own statement, calling Republicans hypocritical on the issue.
“Firstly, the party that celebrates pardons for those who attacked Capitol Police on January 6 should never, ever be lecturing anyone about law and order,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
“Secondly, no amount of desperate misdirection will hide the reality that the American people are swiftly souring on House Republicans’ failed agenda of broken promises and rising prices, and will reject them in the midterms,” he continued.
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) has struck a diplomatic tone with the administration, saying she will work with federal officials.
“I’m going to work every day to make sure it’s not a complete disaster. Let me put it that way,” Bowser told reporters at a Monday press conference after Trump’s announcement.
Some Democrats expressed concern about the precedent Trump’s actions in the capital city could have on other metropolitan centers across the country.
“It’s a dangerous stunt, but it’s still a stunt,” Nellis said.
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