President Trump has been pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, writing on social media last month that the central bank has been “TOO LATE AND WRONG” in holding off on further reductions. Now, the Fed is set to meet on Wednesday to make its next rate decision — but Mr. Trump may need to wait longer to get his cuts.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at its May 7 meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch. The group pegs the likelihood at 97% that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the same level that it’s been at since December, when the central bank made its most recent reduction.
The Fed’s meeting comes at a time when the U.S. economy is sending mixed signals, with GDP unexpectedly falling into negative territory in the first quarter, while job growth topped forecasts in April. At the same time, Wall Street economists are hiking their recession risk for the U.S. economy due to the impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which have hit imports from China with a 145% import duty — costs that are largely passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices.
The Fed has signaled it will take a wait-and-see approach, with Powell saying at a speech last month that the central bank can stay patient while tariffs and other Trump administration economic policies play out.
“The Fed and investors find themselves in a no man’s land waiting to see whether economic policies drive prices higher and growth lower,” noted Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, in an email.
He added, “The reality is that corporate earnings have been pretty strong, the U.S. economy barreling along and the biggest cause for concern is sentiment. There isn’t a good reason to change rates at this point, and the Fed is likely to reiterate the need for more data with three rate cuts priced in for 2025, at this point starting in the summer.”
Here’s what to know about the Fed’s next meeting.
What date is the Fed’s next meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee, the 12-member group that sets rate decisions, will meet on May 6-7, with the Fed announcing the FOMC’s decision on May 7.
What time is the Fed rate announcement?
The Fed will announce the rate decision at 2 p.m. EST on May 7, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to discuss the committee’s decision at a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST that day.
What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Very slim, with economists projecting 97% odds that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
“Criticism from President Trump will not trigger a Fed policy response — neither an early cut without evidence of labor market deterioration, nor a stubborn refusal to cut once the labor market does soften, provided long-term inflation expectations remain anchored,” noted Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius in a May 6 research note.
When is the Fed expected to cut rates?
Consumers eager for relief on borrowing costs are likely going to face a wait, according to economists.
Following the May 7 meeting, the Fed will next meet on June 18, with economists currently expecting the central bank to also hold steady then, according to CME FedWatch. Its polling finds a 70% likelihood that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.5% at that meeting.
However, it’s more likely the Fed could slash rates at its July 30 meeting, with the probability of a rate cut sitting currently at 80%, FedWatch notes.
But some economists expect the central bank to hold off even longer.
“We think the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates next year, as tariff-induced inflation begins to fade and the labor market shows more troubling signs,” noted Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Sweet, who says he believes the first cut will occur in December.
Why does Trump want a rate cut now?
Mr. Trump argues that inflation has steadily cooled and high borrowing costs are no longer needed to restrain price increases. The Fed sharply ramped up its short-term rate in 2022 and 2023 as pandemic-era inflation spiked.
On Friday, Mr. Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that there is “NO INFLATION” and claimed that grocery and egg prices have fallen, and that gas has dropped to $1.98 a gallon.
But those claims are not entirely true: Grocery prices have jumped 0.5% in two of the past three months and are up 2.4% from a year ago. Gas and oil prices have declined — gas costs are down 10% from a year ago — continuing a longer-running trend that has continued in part because of fears the economy will weaken. Still, AAA says gas prices nationwide average $3.18 a gallon.
What does the Fed’s decision mean for your money?
Borrowers who are looking for relief on loan and credit card rates will have a wait ahead of them, experts say.
“There’s just so much uncertainty in the economy now,” said Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst for LendingTree, in an email. “No one quite knows what the next few months will look like, but what does seem clear is that Americans are going to have wait at least a little longer for the Fed to cut rates.”
Schulz predicts that credit card rates could tick higher in the next few months, as well as auto loan rates.
“Banks are nervous about all of the uncertainty in the economy and what it means for consumers,” he noted. “When that happens, banks try to minimize risk as much as possible, and one of the ways they do that is to raise interest rates on credit cards.”
Because of that, consumers should focus on shopping around for the best rates they can find, as well as considering transferring existing high-interest credit card debt to 0% balance transfer cards, Schulz added.
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