President Donald Trump warned Apple on Friday that it would pay a 25% tariff on foreign-made products, sending shares down more than 2%. Apple has been shifting production toward India to get around tariffs on China, but analysts have estimated that producing iPhones in the U.S. would take years and boost the price tag sharply.
The threat of tariffs is back on the table for Apple as President Donald Trump pushes for more U.S. production, but the economics of making devices in America remain challenging.
On Friday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social that the consumer-electronics giant, which has been shifting more production from China to India, must sell U.S.-made products, or else face steep duties.
“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” he wrote. “If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Shares of Apple fell 2.8% to $195.76 in midday trading.
The renewed tariff threat comes after Trump carved out exceptions to his “reciprocal tariffs” last month, which included smartphones, and less than two weeks after slashing his tariffs on China to 30% amid trade negotiations with Beijing.
Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Apple had pledged in February to invest $500 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years. That included a new server manufacturing facility, a supplier academy in Michigan, and more spending with existing suppliers, but it didn’t include domestic production of iPhones.
Meanwhile, Trump has expressed impatience with the company, saying earlier this month he had “a little problem” with CEO Tim Cook.
“I said to him, ‘My friend, I treated you very good. You’re coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you’re building all over India.’ I don’t want you building in India,” he said.
U.S.-made iPhone price tag
Since Trump launched his trade war, Wall Street has tried to game out what a made-in-America iPhone would require. Not only would it take several years and billions of dollars to build new plants in the U.S., the price tag would give consumers sticker shock.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said last month that making iPhones in the U.S. would be a “non-starter,” estimating the price would soar above $3,000. On Friday, he reiterated his view on how impractical that would be.
“The pressure from Trump Administration on Apple to build iPhone production in the US as we have discussed this would result in an iPhone price point that is a non-starter for Cupertino and translate into iPhone prices of ~$3,500 if it was made in the US which is not realistic as this would take 5-10 years to shift production to the US,” he wrote in a note. “We believe the concept of Apple producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale that is not feasible.”
Similarly, analysts at JPMorgan also doubted Apple would move production to the U.S. and would instead learn to live with tariffs, which would apply to smartphones overall and not just iPhones.
In that case, JPMorgan analysts added, Apple’s pricing power with consumers and suppliers actually gives it an advantage over rivals; JPM estimated a 5% hike under a 25% tariff—or about $50 per iPhone—which is on par with typical price hikes the company has made in the past.
In a separate note from April 9, before Trump slashed his China tariffs, Bank of America said higher labor costs alone would boost the iPhone 16 Pro Max’s price, which is about $1,000, by about 25% if just final assembly took place in the U.S.
That assumes the smartphone’s components would still be imported and presumably face tariffs. At the time, when prohibitively high rates were in place, BofA estimated the total cost would soar by more than 90%.
Moving the entire iPhone supply chain would likely take many years, if even possible, and Apple isn’t expected to move it to the U.S., BofA added.
Despite the latest tariff threat, Wedbush’s Ives still expects Apple to find a way to appease Trump and maintained his “outperform” rating on the stock.
“With Cook being 10% politician and 90% CEO (maybe now it’s 25%/75%), we believe AAPL will continue to navigate this complex tariff situation in a game of negotiations especially heading into iPhone 17 production this Fall,” he wrote on Friday.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
