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President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would add $2.4 trillion to the nation’s deficit over roughly the next decade, a new cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows.
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The agency estimated the proposed tax cuts in the plan — which seek to lock in expiring provisions in Trump signature 2017 tax law, along with a host of other add-ons — would decrease revenues by more than $3.6 trillion over that time frame.
Meanwhile, accompanying measures to cut federal spending, including reforms to Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, would reduce outlays by more than $1.2 trillion over the same period, the CBO estimated.
The CBO also estimated the bill in its current form would “increase by 10.9 million the number of people without health insurance in 2034.”
“That total includes an estimated 1.4 million people without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status who would no longer be covered in state-only funded programs in 2034,” it continued.
The CBO found the bill would also “lower gross benchmark premiums, on average, in marketplace plans established by the Affordable Care Act by an estimated 12.2 percent in 2034.”
The Senate is expected to make changes to the legislation soon, with hopes of pushing the bill out of Congress by early July.
The Hill has more here.
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Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, I’m Aris Folley — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.
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Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:
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Trump calls for scrapping debt limit
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President Trump doubled down Wednesday on calls to scrap the nation’s debt ceiling, pressing for bipartisan action to abolish it and finding common ground with Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.).
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Scaramucci: GOP megabill ‘potential cataclysm’ for bond market
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Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci described President Trump’s massive tax and spending bill as a “potential cataclysm” for the bond market.
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Duffy threatens to pull California’s high speed rail funding
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The Trump administration notified California officials Wednesday that federal funding for the state’s massive high-speed rail project is at risk of being pulled after a four-month review concluded the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) has “no viable path” to complete the project on time or on budget.
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Warren asks if X violating sanctions with ‘blue checks’
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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) raised concerns Wednesday about whether Elon Musk’s social platform X is violating sanctions by reportedly allowing members of terrorist organizations to obtain “blue checks.”
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Senate GOP talks cutting Medicare ‘waste, fraud’ to offset cost of Trump tax bill
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Senate Republicans on Wednesday discussed the need to cut out waste, fraud and abuse in Medicare to achieve more deficit reduction in President Trump’s landmark bill to extend the 2017 tax cuts, provide new tax relief, secure the border and boost defense spending.
The House-passed bill would cut more than $800 billion from Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, but some GOP lawmakers argue that other mandatory spending programs, such as Medicare, should also be reviewed for “waste” to further reduce the cost of the bill.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told reporters after the meeting that there is “a legitimate debate” within the Senate Republican Conference about whether bigger cuts can be made to federal Medicaid spending and whether federal Medicare spending needs to be reviewed as well.
“There’s a legitimate debate about, ‘Can we do more with Medicaid? Are we doing too much with Medicaid? How much waste, fraud and abuse is there in Medicare? Why don’t we go after that?’ I think we should,” Cramer said after meeting with colleagues to discuss changes to the House-passed bill to enact Trump’s agenda.
“Some people are afraid of the topics. I’m not,” Cramer said. “In my view, this is our moment as Republicans in control of all three branches, and we ought to be going after more fiscal responsibility.”
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has more here.
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Tax Watch is a regular feature focused on the fight over tax reform and extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts this year. Email a tip
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Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:
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Branch out with more stories from the day:
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Reddit sues AI company Anthropic for allegedly ‘scraping’ user comments to train chatbot Claude
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Social media platform Reddit sued the artificial intelligence company Anthropic on Wednesday, alleging …
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Business and economic news we’ve flagged from other outlets:
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Stock futures are little changed after Dow snaps four-day winning run (CNBC)
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U.S. companies are scrambling to move supply chains. This small island could be the answer (CNN)
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Japan’s annual births fall to record low as country’s ‘silent emergency’ deepens (The Associated Press)
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Top stories on The Hill right now:
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Judge Boasberg rules migrants at Salvadoran megaprison can contest gang accusations
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A federal judge on Wednesday ruled a group of Venezuelans deported to a Salvadoran megaprison under the Alien Enemies Act must be provided a legal avenue to contest the Trump administration’s accusations that they are gang members. Read more
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Musk attacks underscores pent-up tensions with White House
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Elon Musk’s harsh criticism of the White House’s signature policy bill is laying bare the tensions between the world’s richest man and the administration where he worked over the last four months. Read more
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Opinions related to business and economic issues submitted to The Hill:
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Congress must pass the Safeguard Charity Act to save civil society
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The GOP budget courts disaster, and for what?
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You’re all caught up. See you tomorrow!
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