Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore ambassador to the United Nations and David Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to Singapore, at ‘s CONVERGE LIVE on Thursday, March 13, Singapore.
While U.S. President Donald Trump is in theory “very negative on China,” in practice, he may be willing to do “a big trade deal” with the country, according to veteran Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani.
In fact, it is more likely that the Trump administration negotiates a deal with China, compared with the Biden administration, Singapore’s former ambassador to the United Nations said.
While Mahbubani noted that Trump “should be more anti-China,” if the Trump administration can assure Beijing that it will not push for independence on Taiwan, it might smoothen negotiations on a trade deal between the two countries.
“If Trump can get China to open up its market, accept more American exports and possibly even invest more in United States, then it’s possible to have a win-win trade deal,” he said.
“The Chinese clearly want to have a deal also with the United States. They don’t want this contest to carry on,” Mahbubani added.
Speaking at the same panel, David Adelman, the former U.S. ambassador to Singapore, said “China has an important stake in American economic success.”
Adelman noted that the U.S is the biggest market for Chinese goods and the country’s consumer is still the most powerful in the world. But Chinese consumers are growing increasingly affluent, which presents an opportunity for American producers.
The countries in between
On trade, Mahbubani thinks that there is a “structural shift of power to Asia,” referencing the keynote speech made by Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong in CONVERGE LIVE.
Gan had said that Asia’s economy is projected to expand from around 50% of the world’s gross domestic product today to about 60% by 2030.
Adelman drew attention to the Southeast Asian region specifically, describing it as mostly a “collection of neutral countries.” He pointed out that those are countries that have enjoyed America’s military support while having strong economic ties with China, which is the biggest trading partner for all Southeast Asian countries.
Those “non-aligned” nations have “enjoyed the benefit of American security protection” while being able to “take advantage of China’s economic growth,” Adelman said.
But Trump and, to a lesser extent, China President Xi Jinping appear to be pushing Southeast Asian nations to choose between the two powers, giving rise to “a very interesting dynamic,” Adelman said.
However, over time, “the U.S. and China will realize that it is in their interest to try and work with regions like Southeast Asia,” rather than forcing them to pick a side, Mahbubani said.
“So everyone wants to keep their options open. And that’s the world of tomorrow that you will see. That everyone realizes that the best way to survive is to keep your options open,” he said.
