Trump hints at softer tariffs, rallying markets

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have so far taken the shape of country-specific, sweepingly reciprocal, targeted at sectors and applicable only to countries with a certain trade relationship with another.

He has also been “flexible” in implementing them — as he remarked Friday on the possibility of doing so — granting last-minute pauses, exceptions to goods under trade agreements and potential reprieves even for across-the-board tariffs.

Markets rallied Monday, driven by Trump’s hint that countries could get a “break” from reciprocal tariffs. But it’s unlikely to be a sustained upward trend, given the wild swings in the types, and the unpredictable executions, of Trump tariffs.

Strategists often look at technical trends in stocks’ movements, such as their 200-day moving average, in an attempt to divine their future. It might be more fruitful, in this political epoch, to shift that scrutiny to Trump, who has alternately caused markets to pop — and plunge — with one pronouncement.

New Trump tariffs, again
U.S. President Donald Trump said at a Cabinet meeting earlier on Monday he will soon announce tariffs targeting automobiles, pharmaceuticals and other industries, and, at a White House event later the same day, added the lumber and semiconductor industries to his list. Trump also said Monday the U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

Possible ‘breaks’ for tariffs
Even as Trump said he would impose tariffs on industries, at a White House event Monday, he said he “may give a lot of countries breaks” on the reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect April 2. When pressed for clarification on whether sectoral tariffs will also start that day, Trump initially said, “Yeah, it’s going to be everything,” before adding, “but not all tariffs are included that day.”

U.S. stocks shoot up
U.S. stocks jumped Monday on relief that Trump tariffs might not be as severe as expected.  The S&P 500 gained 1.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 2.27%. Tesla shares popped 11.9%, their best day since Nov. 6, 2024, a day after Trump’s election victory. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index dipped 0.13%. Swedish defense firm Saab gained 4.5% after UBS upgraded its stock to buy from neutral.

Hyundai’s $21 billion investment in U.S.
South Korean conglomerate Hyundai on Monday announced a roughly $21 billion investment in U.S. onshoring that includes a $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana, announced Trump, Hyundai Chairman Euisun Chung and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry Monday. The plant is set to hire more than 1,400 employees and will produce steel that will be used by Hyundai’s two U.S. auto plants to manufacture electric vehicles.

[PRO] Magnificent Seven rebound?
The performance of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks can serve as a barometer for investor sentiment toward the U.S. market, some analysts think. Their rally on Monday, after a monthslong rout, has generated optimism for a turnaround — but one equity strategist thinks investors shouldn’t get their hopes up.

Political and financial turmoil set to dominate Turkey, risking economic stabilization plans

More than 1,100 people have been arrested in Turkey’s nationwide protests since demonstrations began on March 19, Turkish authorities said Monday, as political and economic instability grips the nation following last week’s arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Analysts expect a prolonged period of volatility for the Turkish lira and the foreign reserves that the country will need to burn through in order to keep it afloat.

Central bank officials spent $12 billion in foreign reserves last week to prop up the lira, the Financial Times reported as of March 21, after the currency hit a record low of more than 40 to the dollar. Markets initially plunged on news of the arrest, and Turkey on Sunday banned short selling and relaxed buyback rules in an effort to bolster stocks.