A closer look at April’s jobs data suggests it may be more of a testament to the resilience of the U.S. economy than a ringing endorsement of President Donald Trump’s economic plan. Still, equity markets breathed a sigh of relief as recession fears eased, which could give the administration more leverage in upcoming trade negotiations.
Tariff uncertainty didn’t prevent Friday’s widely anticipated jobs report from storming past Wall Street’s gloomy expectations, and President Donald Trump is looking to claim victory. Stephen Miran, the president’s top economic advisor, went on Bloomberg Television to celebrate Trump’s “second jobs beat in a row” after the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, well above the 135,000 payroll additions markets had expected.
Many economists and investors warn the worst impacts from tariffs are still on the horizon, however, if the administration doesn’t find an exit ramp soon. Meanwhile, a closer look at the jobs data suggests it may be more of a testament to the resilience of the U.S. economy than a ringing endorsement of the president’s economic plan.
For example, Trump’s tariffs are ostensibly aimed, at least in part, at rebuilding America’s industrial base, and the president signed an executive order on his first day in office calling for deregulation to “unleash” American energy.
On Friday, though, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment showed little to no change in industries like manufacturing, construction, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
Instead, the bulk of new jobs came from industries that do not necessarily reflect the administration’s priorities. The health care sector added 51,000 jobs in April, while the private education and health services component accounted for 70,000 new hires, despite fears about what cuts to federal funding will mean for both industries.
And even though the Elon Musk–headed Department of Government Efficiency has taken a chain saw to the federal workforce—with the sector losing 9,000 jobs in April and 26,000 total since January—overall government jobs grew by 10,000 as state and local hiring more than offset DOGE cuts.
Those nuances didn’t stop the administration from celebrating the report.
“Wages are continuing to rise, and labor force participation is increasing,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to Fortune. “This is exactly what we want to see. More Americans working for higher wages. More winning is on the way!”
Average hourly earnings grew 0.2% in April, below Wall Street’s 0.3% forecast; annual wage growth was 3.8%, unchanged from March.
Good and bad news for Trump
Signs the labor market remains strong, however, suggest Trump is unlikely to get his way when it comes to interest rates. Shortly after the report was released, the president posted on Truth Social to demand that the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate to lower borrowing costs for Americans.
Most of Wall Street, however, saw the data as cementing the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach. The Fed is almost guaranteed to hold rates steady when it meets next week, and most traders are now anticipating the same in June before a 25-basis point cut in July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Traders also scaled back their bets on Fed rate cuts by selling bonds, which would become more attractive relative to new debt if the central bank slashes interest rates. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which rises as the price of the bond falls and is closely tied to the Federal funds rate, surged roughly 13 basis points as of Friday afternoon. Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management, told Fortune the chances of a June rate cut seemed remote.
“The only thing that’s going to get them off the dime, because they’re all labor market economists, is a weakening in the labor market,” he said of the Fed.
Of course, a good jobs report can’t be all bad news for the president. After all, there are no signs of tariff stress hitting the labor market yet, said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond.
“If you are going to embark on a trade war and your economy is consumption based, this is the leverage you want,” he wrote in a note Friday.
The stock market, still reeling from a tariff-induced free fall at the beginning of the month, breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 was up about 1.5% Friday afternoon.
“If the labor market holds up and the Trump administration walks back the most egregious tariffs, the economy could skirt a deep recession,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at broker-dealer and wealth manager LPL Financial, wrote in a note Friday.
When it comes to Trump’s taxes on imports, however, many economists warn most of the impacts are yet to play out. For example, Friday’s payroll data showed transportation and warehousing had added 29,000 workers in April. Some economists ascribed this bump to importers rushing to stock up on goods before higher tariffs kick in. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private equity giant Apollo, predicted mass layoffs could hit the industry this month amid a dramatic slowdown in global shipping, particularly between the U.S. and China.
“It would be astonishing if payrolls in the logistics, manufacturing, and retail sectors were unscathed by the looming decline in goods entering U.S. ports over coming weeks,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Friday.
That might begin to show up on next month’s report.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
