Donald Trump capped off a whirlwind series of tariff threats with confirmation Friday that he has broken yet another monthly tariff revenue record, ending a week where his trade war got more complicated than ever.
This latest frenetic stretch began with the president promising a mix of “Letters, and/or Deals” and also talking of being “done” with trade talks.
But the week appears set to end with perhaps the only certainty that talks are likely to only intensify in the coming weeks as negotiators (not to mention markets) refocus on a new Aug. 1 deadline for a range of promised tariff hikes.
But in the meantime — as Trump himself often touts — tariff revenues are clearly coming in with new data from the Treasury Department released Friday afternoon confirming that June was yet another record month on the revenue front with $26.6 billion in customs duties coming into US coffers.
It was another step up from May’s total of $22.2 billion. It bring the total for the fiscal year, which began in November, to $108 billion with majority of that money coming in recent month’s as Trump’s tariffs began to bite.
But the Friday afternoon data also confirmed that Trump still has a way to go before tariff revenues make up a major piece of US government receipts with this latest Treasury monthly statement also showing that total government receipts for the month topped $526 billion.
The new Friday data was the latest in a nonstop series of tariff headlines — from surprise escalations and promises of 35% tariffs on Canada to 50% duties on Brazil to letters to 20+ additional nations and unveiling of 50% duties on copper.
Trade observers couldn’t keep up but markets more often than not shrugged off the threats with apparent plans to wait and see what the landscape looks closer to that deadline next month.
In the meantime, Trump says no more extensions are in the offing and adding at a recent cabinet meeting that “the big money will start coming in on Aug. 1.”
In total, Trump is now promising to impose blanket tariffs of about 15 to 20% on most trading partners with others going much higher.
Brazil was perhaps the biggest surprise of the week when that South American nation saw a letter with a a possible 50% tariff over what Trump describes as a witch hunt of the former president, a Trump ally who faces accusations of trying to overturn the will of voters after losing a re-election bid in 2022.
“Maybe at some point I’ll talk to him,” Trump told reporters Friday of when he would negotiate with Brazil. “Right now I’m not.”
Also in focus as the week ended was Canada, which was another surprise when it saw a Trump promise of a 35% rate though many currently-excluded goods like oil are expected to be carved out as talks continue there.
Those talks are looking ahead to both the Aug. 1 deadline as well as a coming joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) set for next July.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded to Trump’s latest threat by saying talks have been ongoing with Canada prepare to defend its interests and “we will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of Aug. 1.”
It was all part of a week that saw President Trump offering new volume of hawkish commentary by the day and markets not only looking through the rhetoric but even rising.
The S&P 500 is set to be largely flat on the week but reached new record highs earlier this week.
It was a sharp contrast to early April when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sent markets reeling and caused te president to backtrack after he said he saw that people were “yippy” and “afraid.”
It was a very different tone this time with Trump touting the record highs, hosting Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang at the White House, and even suggesting his tariffs were fueling his view that America is the “hottest country.”
“Tech Stocks, Industrial Stocks, & NASDAQ, HIT ALL-TIME, RECORD HIGHS!” he wrote Thursday. “USA is taking in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs. COUNTRY IS NOW “BACK.””
The bottom line, as Raymond James’ Ed Mills noted this week, is that “the tariff landscape is evolving rapidly” with lots of drama ahead and rates likely from 10-50% depending on the country.
But in the end, he added, after Aug. 1, “the base case is for tariffs to settle in the 10–30% range.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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