President Donald Trump has intensified the ongoing trade dispute with China, labeling Beijing’s refusal to purchase American soybeans an “Economically Hostile Act” and threatening to terminate trade in cooking oil. This latest escalation has left US farmers in a precarious position, grappling with market uncertainty and the potential for a deeper, more damaging trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
The intricate dance of trade relations between the United States and China has once again taken a sharp turn, with President Donald Trump unleashing new threats that could ripple across global markets. At the heart of this renewed tension lies the critical commodity of soybeans, a cornerstone of American agriculture, now entangled in a high-stakes geopolitical game. The latest development sees Trump considering a ban on cooking oil from China, a move designed to pressure Beijing over its continued boycott of US agricultural products.
The Persistent Soybean Standoff
The current predicament for American soybean farmers is not new; it echoes the trade war initiated during Trump’s first term. Historically, China has been the largest buyer of American soybeans, using them primarily for animal feed and oil extraction. In 2024, US agricultural exports of soybeans totaled approximately $24.5 billion, with China accounting for roughly $12.6 billion, nearly half of all US soybean exports, according to Farm Action, a farmer-led watchdog organization. However, as trade tensions mounted, China began implementing retaliatory tariffs on US goods, including soybeans, effectively halting purchases since May 2025.
This boycott has forced China to increasingly turn to South American suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, to meet its massive demand. For American farmers, this shift has been devastating. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA) and a Kentucky farmer, describes the situation as a “five-alarm fire” for the industry. Farmers like Brian Warpup in Indiana emphasize that while government aid packages offer temporary relief, they ultimately seek “strong, reliable markets” rather than “handouts” to sustain their livelihoods.
A New Front: The Cooking Oil Threat
On October 14, 2025, President Trump took to Truth Social, declaring China’s soybean boycott an “Economically Hostile Act.” In response, he announced consideration of “terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade.” Trump asserted that the US could “easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”
This threat targets a significant import stream. In 2024, the United States imported approximately 1.27 million metric tons of used cooking oil from China, representing about 43% of China’s total used cooking oil exports, as reported by the USDA. The proposed ban marks an escalation beyond agricultural products, venturing into manufactured goods with a direct link to a key US import.
The Shifting Sands of Diplomacy
Trump’s recent statements reveal a fluctuating diplomatic stance towards China. Just days before the cooking oil threat, on October 6, he indicated plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating that “Soybeans will be a major topic of discussion.” However, by October 10, reports suggested a potential cancellation of this meeting, with Trump threatening an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports in response to China’s alleged restriction of rare earth mineral exports. He later posted, “it will all be fine” with China, only to express skepticism again on October 14, stating, “We have to be careful with China… China likes to take advantage of people and they can’t take advantage of us.”
This inconsistency has generated frustration among stakeholders. The American Soybean Association expressed “extreme disappointment” at the initial news of a cancelled meeting, as they had hoped for a resolution that would restore US soybean exports to China. This underscores the desperate need for clarity and stability for farmers facing immense financial pressure.
Beyond the Headlines: The Farmer’s Perspective
The trade war’s impact on US farmers goes beyond mere statistics. Matt Purfeerst, a fifth-generation farmer in Minnesota, highlighted the challenge of finding a “home” for the 100,000 bushels of soybeans in his bins. Farmers are caught between rising costs for essentials like fertilizer and seed, and plummeting commodity prices due to reduced demand. The volatility of the market means holding onto crops is a gamble, where prices could jump with a trade deal or sink further without one.
Farmers have made it clear they prefer markets over government assistance. As Indiana farmer Brian Warpup succinctly put it, “We don’t want aid payments… We want to work.” While they appreciate the willingness to provide short-term relief, their ultimate goal is “strong, reliable markets” that allow them to build a sustainable future. The sentiment among farmers, many of whom have historically supported Trump, is a plea for the administration to “have their back” now, as articulated by ASA President Caleb Ragland. Farmers are actively seeking to diversify their customer base, with efforts underway to explore new markets in countries like Japan, Indonesia, and Taiwan, and to boost domestic consumption through initiatives in biodiesel production and animal feed research.
China’s Strategic Leverage
From China’s perspective, the soybean boycott is a calculated strategic move. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, stated that “the essence of China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win,” while implicitly acknowledging the leverage. Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, confirms this, noting that China targets agricultural products because they recognize the strong lobbying power of farmers and their importance to the US government. This strategy aims to create internal political pressure within the US to push for a more favorable overall trade deal.
China’s pivot to South American suppliers also aligns with its long-term goal of enhancing food security by diversifying its import sources, as evidenced by record purchases from Brazil and Argentina. The “Phase One” trade agreement, signed in January 2020, saw China pledge to purchase an additional $200 billion in US goods, but a 2022 analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) indicated that China only met approximately 58% of its overall purchase target, and 77% for farm goods.
What Lies Ahead: Long-Term Implications
The latest escalation in the US-China trade war carries significant long-term implications. For American agriculture, a prolonged absence of China as a major soybean buyer could necessitate a fundamental restructuring of markets and supply chains. While farmers are diversifying and boosting domestic uses, replacing a customer as large as China “is hard to replace them overnight,” as Sutter noted. The reliance on government aid, while necessary for survival in the short term, is not a sustainable model for the industry.
Globally, these tensions disrupt established trade routes and could lead to increased prices for consumers as supply chains adjust. The ongoing unpredictability from the US administration, oscillating between conciliation and confrontation, makes it challenging for businesses and farmers alike to plan for the future. As the standoff continues, the stakes remain incredibly high, not just for the economic giants involved, but for the millions of people whose livelihoods depend on stable international trade relations.
