The Trump administration’s plan to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research threatens to unravel six decades of weather and climate research infrastructure, potentially degrading hurricane forecasting, severe weather prediction, and national climate security capabilities at a time of increasing extreme weather events.
The Trump administration has initiated plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, a move that scientists warn could severely undermine the United States’ ability to predict severe weather events, understand climate change, and protect public safety. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought announced the move via social media, characterizing the research center as “one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country.”
Vought stated that “a comprehensive review is underway” and that “any vital activities such as weather research will be moved to another entity or location.” The announcement drew immediate condemnation from meteorologists, climate scientists, and lawmakers who recognize NCAR’s fundamental role in advancing Earth system science.
What NCAR Actually Does: Beyond “Climate Alarmism”
Founded in 1960, NCAR has served as the nation’s premier atmospheric research facility, operating as a federally funded research and development center managed by the nonprofit University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The center receives most of its funding from the National Science Foundation, an independent federal agency.
NCAR’s research portfolio extends far beyond climate change studies. The center develops critical tools and models used for:
- Hurricane forecasting and intensity prediction through GPS dropsonde technology
- Severe weather prediction including the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
- Air quality monitoring and pollution tracking systems
- Drought and flood forecasting essential for agricultural and water management
- Space weather research crucial for satellite and communications infrastructure
The GPS Dropsonde: A Revolution in Hurricane Forecasting
One of NCAR’s most significant contributions to public safety has been the development and refinement of the GPS dropsonde, a weather instrument released from hurricane hunter aircraft into tropical cyclones. These instruments collect vital atmospheric data that dramatically improves storm path prediction and intensity forecasting.
James Franklin, former chief of the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, noted that dropsonde technology “revolutionized the understanding of tropical cyclone structure, improved forecasts, and validated remote sensing platforms,” with research documented in more than 400 peer-reviewed publications over 25 years. This technology represents just one of NCAR’s countless advances in meteorological science.
Scientific Community Reaction: “Taking a Sledgehammer to the Keystone”
The scientific response to the proposed dismantling has been overwhelmingly negative, with experts warning of catastrophic consequences for American scientific leadership and public safety.
Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, described NCAR as “quite literally our global mothership” in atmospheric research, noting that “everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources.” She characterized the dismantling plan as “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.”
Dr. Carlos Martinez, senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, emphasized that “without NCAR’s infrastructure and supercomputing abilities, many small colleges and universities wouldn’t be able to conduct climate or weather research with the latest models.” He warned that the research done at NCAR “influences every piece of weather and climate prediction in the United States, enabling air quality monitoring, forecasting of droughts and extreme precipitation events, and improving hurricane intensity forecasts.”
Political Backlash and Colorado Response
The announcement has triggered strong bipartisan pushback, particularly from Colorado lawmakers where the center employs 830 people and represents a significant economic and scientific asset.
U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet from Colorado, along with Congressman Joe Neguse who represents Boulder, issued a joint statement condemning the proposal as “deeply dangerous and blatantly retaliatory.” They emphasized that NCAR delivers “life-saving breakthroughs that provide early warnings for natural disasters and deepen our understanding of Earth’s systems,” adding that they would “fight back against attempts to gut this cutting-edge research institution with every tool we have.”
Colorado Governor Jared Polis warned that dismantling NCAR would cause the United States to “lose our competitive advantage against foreign powers and adversaries in the pursuit of scientific discovery.” He emphasized that NCAR’s work “goes far beyond climate science” and delivers “data around severe weather events like fires and floods that help our country save lives and property, and prevent devastation for families.”
Administration Rationale and Broader Context
The Trump administration’s move against NCAR fits within a broader pattern of targeting climate science and environmental regulations. A senior White House official suggested the move was retaliatory, stating “maybe if Colorado had a governor who actually wanted to work with President Trump, his constituents would be better served.”
This action follows other environmental policy shifts, including the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to kill the landmark ‘endangerment’ climate rule and various budget proposals that would significantly reduce funding for climate and weather research across multiple agencies.
National Science Foundation Position
The National Science Foundation, NCAR’s primary funder, issued a cautious statement indicating they are “reviewing the structure of the research and observational capabilities” while remaining “committed to providing world-class infrastructure for weather modeling, space weather research and forecasting, and other critical functions.” The agency promised to engage with partner agencies and the research community to solicit feedback on rescoping NCAR’s functions.
Implications for National Security and Global Competitiveness
The potential dismantling of NCAR carries significant implications beyond scientific research. The center’s work supports national security through improved weather prediction for military operations, space weather monitoring that protects satellite and communications systems, and climate analysis that informs long-term strategic planning.
Internationally, NCAR maintains America’s leadership in atmospheric sciences, collaborating with research institutions worldwide and setting standards for weather and climate modeling. The loss of this central coordinating facility could cede scientific leadership to other nations while degrading the quality of forecasts that Americans rely on for everything from agriculture to disaster preparedness.
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