Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) reelection campaign is facing serious warning signs as new polling shows the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) widening his lead in the Republican Senate primary.
A poll conducted by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 22 points among the state’s Republican primary voters. The same poll shows Paxton leading among key demographics within the state’s GOP primary electorate, including seniors and voters who identified as “MAGA.”
While Cornyn’s campaign has dismissed the findings as biased and as “silly season” for polling, the findings are the latest in a string of polls showing the longtime incumbent trailing his primary challenger. Texas Republicans say it’s another sign that Cornyn needs to ramp up his attacks and spending ahead of February’s primary.
“I think those numbers today are going to force Cornyn to go up on air and take a chunk out of Ken Paxton pretty damn soon,” one Republican strategist told The Hill. “The question is, can he?”
The senator’s former campaign manager Brendan Steinhauser noted that Cornyn’s team will not hold back in an effort to define Paxton early in the primary.
“I think they’re going to have to spend a lot of money early to try and make their case given where we are in the polling right out of the gate,” Steinhauser said.
And Cornyn’s campaign has already begun going on offense against Paxton. Last week, the incumbent senator’s campaign rolled out four new ads hitting Paxton over money his office gave to several Texas entities, accusing Paxton of “funding the left.” The spots were part of a five-figure digital ad buy.
Cornyn’s allies point out that the primary is in February of next year, which allows ample time to close the gap with Paxton.
“The primary is in nine months,” said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Cornyn’s campaign. “This is going to be a very close race and Sen. Cornyn is fully committed to winning it.”
Mackowiak cited a poll of the race released last week by Texas Southern University as “the last credible independent poll” of the contest. While that poll showed Paxton holding a nine-point lead in the primary, it also had Cornyn leading hypothetical Democratic candidate Collin Allred by four points and Paxton leading Allred by just two, within the margin of error.
Last month, a Senate Leadership Fund poll showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 16 points. But in a hypothetical general election poll, Paxton lost by 1 point to Allred.
And even Paxton allies acknowledge it’s early in the race.
“Cornyn’s folks are right, it is silly season for polling,” said Republican donor Dan Eberhart, who is supporting Paxton. “But he definitely has an uphill battle.”
A senior Cornyn adviser told The Hill that they didn’t expect any movement in the polls until early next year.
“These races don’t move much until the end,” the adviser said. “You’d be wasting money to spend money right now. Cornyn’s going to have to spend money though.”
Some Republicans question whether Cornyn will be able to make that case, given the state of the conservative grassroots in Texas. The incumbent senator garnered the wrath of the grassroots in 2022 when he helped lead the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which addressed gun control and school safety, through Congress after the shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. Cornyn was later booed at the Texas GOP convention that year, and the Collin County GOP voted to censure him.
And in 2023, Cornyn said he believed Trump’s “time has passed him by” in terms of whether he could win another election. Cornyn later endorsed Trump, saying the president “was right and I was wrong.”
“Holy cow, like how does he ever anticipate climbing back into this in the good graces of a MAGA-led GOP base with those two anchors around his neck?” the unnamed GOP strategist said.
Others note that the latest polling is less about Cornyn and more about Paxton’s own popularity with the base, particularly coming out of the latter’s impeachment trial in the Texas state House.
Paxton has been a central figure in an ongoing civil war within the Texas Republican Party. In 2023, he was acquitted in 2023 on 16 articles of impeachment amid allegations that he had used the power of his office to aid his friend. The impeachment effort partly led to a campaign by Paxton and his allies in the Lone Star State to purge the legislature of Republicans they saw as disloyal.
Next year’s Senate primary is seen as the latest development in that intraparty conflict.
“A lot of Republican grassroots activists and voters like what they see in terms of his leadership at the office of attorney general,” Steinhauser said. “They see Paxton as someone who is on the right wing of the party and so a lot of the activists are excited about his candidacy.”
“If there was someone else running against Cornyn, maybe even a congressman or a state senator or someone like that, I don’t think you would see those numbers,” he continued.
Paxton has painted himself as a victim of the political establishment, in many ways mirroring the strategy Trump deployed in his runs for office.
“I think it’s MAGA vs. DC,” Eberhart said. “Cornyn is a gentler Republican from a past era. Paxton is a fighter and that’s what Texas Republicans want.”
Still, it’s unclear whether Trump will endorse in the primary. The president is fond of Paxton, but has worked with Cornyn in the Senate.
And even if Trump were to back Cornyn, the internal poll released earlier this week showed Paxton continuing to lead Cornyn. After voters were told to assume Trump would endorse Cornyn, Paxton would attack Cornyn for his past comments on Trump and Paxton would attack Cornyn over working with Democrats on gun safety legislation, Cornyn trailed Paxton 62 percent to 21 percent.
“I wouldn’t underestimate [Cornyn],” Steinhauser said, referring to Cornyn. “He’s never lost an election yet in Texas. He still has a lot of loyal voters. I think if Trump stays out of the race, which I think he’s going to do, then I think it will tighten up a bit.”
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