Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, is poised to unleash life-threatening flooding and destructive winds across the Caribbean. With Haiti and Jamaica on high alert, forecasters warn of potential hurricane intensification and a challenging, unpredictable track that demands immediate attention and preparedness from residents and regional authorities.
The Caribbean finds itself in a precarious position as Tropical Storm Melissa strengthens, marking the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. This developing system has prompted urgent warnings across the region, with significant risks to lives and property anticipated, particularly for Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola.
Originally tracked by AccuWeather meteorologists since early October, the system was officially upgraded to Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. This upgrade immediately triggered a hurricane watch for parts of southern Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica, signaling the escalating danger. As of the afternoon of October 22, Melissa was located approximately 320 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, moving slowly west at 14 mph, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
The Unpredictable Path and Looming Intensification
The forecast for Tropical Storm Melissa is characterized by high uncertainty, a common challenge with slow-moving developing systems. Initial predictions indicate a slow westward movement followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north over the next few days. However, some models suggest a potential turn back westward by the weekend, creating a complex and shifting scenario for affected islands.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno noted that a longer westward track would increase the chance of U.S. impacts, particularly for the Florida peninsula and Keys, though currently the direct hit chances are low. The storm’s path is heavily influenced by steering breezes and jet stream dips. Forecasters from AccuWeather and Fox Weather highlight that the longer Melissa remains in the Caribbean’s extremely warm waters—currently in the upper 80s Fahrenheit, well above the 78-80 degrees F required for tropical development—the greater its potential for significant intensification. This could see Melissa evolve into a major hurricane, potentially even a Category 4 or 5, if it avoids prolonged land interaction.
A Deluge of Danger: Extreme Rainfall and Landslides
The most pressing concern from Tropical Storm Melissa is the potential for extreme rainfall, especially given its slow forward speed. Forecasters anticipate 5 to 10 inches of rain in the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, October 25. Critically, local amounts could be significantly higher, with AccuWeather’s local storm maximum ™ for Haiti and Jamaica reaching a staggering 30 inches in isolated areas.
The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, while potentially lowering Melissa’s wind intensity, will act to wring out immense amounts of moisture. This orographic lifting effect, combined with the storm’s slow movement, is expected to lead to feet of rain, causing life-threatening to catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides. Even areas like Puerto Rico, which may be east of the storm’s center, are at risk from continuous plumes of tropical moisture, prompting flash flood and mudslide alerts from the National Weather Service in San Juan.
Destructive Winds and Marine Hazards
Beyond the rainfall, Melissa is expected to bring destructive winds. The National Hurricane Center predicts Melissa could reach hurricane strength by Friday, October 24. Hurricane-force winds are possible in parts of southern Haiti starting Thursday, with tropical-storm-force winds potentially reaching Jamaica by Thursday night or Friday.
AccuWeather meteorologists estimate wind gusts from Melissa could reach at least Category 1 hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the Caribbean, with a local storm maximum ™ gust of 100 mph. Such prolonged strong winds pose a significant threat to infrastructure, trees, poorly constructed buildings, and electrical power grids in the region. Additionally, swells generated by Melissa will spread across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, creating hazardous surf and rip current conditions dangerous for cruise, fishing, and beach resort interests.
Preparing for the Inevitable: A Community Call to Action
For residents across the northern Caribbean, from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba, including Jamaica and Haiti, continuous monitoring of official forecasts is paramount. The inherent unpredictability of slow-moving tropical systems means that local impacts can change rapidly.
Preparing for a hurricane involves several critical steps, as emphasized by organizations like Ready.gov:
- Develop an Evacuation Plan: Know where you will go and how you will get there if an evacuation order is issued.
- Assemble Disaster Supplies: Stock up on food, water, medical supplies, and other essentials for at least several days. Remember, shelves empty quickly once a storm approaches.
- Get an Insurance Checkup: Review your home and renter’s insurance policies. Crucially, flood insurance typically requires a 30-day waiting period, so act now.
- Create a Family Communication Plan: Establish how your family will communicate during and after the storm, including an out-of-town contact.
- Strengthen Your Home: Trim trees, install storm shutters, secure loose outdoor items, and seal any outside wall openings to minimize damage.
Even for areas farther north along the U.S. East Coast, there remains a risk of indirect impacts. A non-tropical storm and front, possibly interacting with Melissa’s remnants, could enhance rain, wind, and seas during the final days of October. While not a direct hit, vigilance is still advised.
The Bigger Picture: Understanding Hurricane Formation
To fully grasp the threat posed by systems like Melissa, it’s essential to understand how hurricanes form. These powerful storms are born in the tropics, originating over warm ocean waters where temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop, and if atmospheric conditions are favorable, these clusters begin to swirl, forming a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A system officially becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. The escalation continues, and when winds reach 74 mph, the storm is officially classified as a hurricane. This classification is further broken down into categories based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with higher categories indicating greater destructive potential. Melissa’s journey from a tropical rainstorm to a named tropical storm, and its potential to become a hurricane, is a textbook example of this natural phenomenon at play.
