Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, is set to unleash torrential rains and significant flood and landslide risks across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and other Caribbean islands, with forecasters warning of potential major hurricane strength by early next week amidst uncertain track predictions.
As Tropical Storm Melissa churns across the central Caribbean Sea, residents of Hispaniola and Jamaica are bracing for what forecasters describe as a significant and potentially long-duration rainfall event. This latest named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is not just a passing weather phenomenon; it carries the risk of life-threatening flash floods and landslides, particularly in vulnerable areas.
The Immediate Threat: Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks
Melissa is currently located several hundred miles south of Haiti, exhibiting a slow, northwestward crawl. This sluggish movement is a major concern, as it means affected areas could experience prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, significantly increasing the risk of severe flooding and mudslides.
Forecasters predict substantial rainfall totals:
- Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Expected to receive between 125 to 250 mm (5 to 10 inches) of rain through Friday, with isolated higher amounts possible.
- Jamaica: Anticipated to see several inches of rain through Friday.
- Aruba, Puerto Rico, and northern areas of Hispaniola: Could experience 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) of rain, with the potential for flash and urban flooding.
These figures highlight the potential for widespread disruption and danger across the region, necessitating immediate preparations for life and property protection.
Watches and Warnings in Effect
Official advisories have been issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, underscoring the seriousness of Melissa’s approach. As of the latest updates, watches are in place for key areas:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Haiti’s southwestern peninsula, spanning from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. This signifies that hurricane-force winds are possible within 48 hours.
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica, indicating that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Melissa’s Projected Path and Intensity: A Complex Forecast
The forecast for Tropical Storm Melissa remains complex, with significant uncertainty surrounding its precise track and intensity. While initial predictions suggest a strengthening into a hurricane by Friday, and potentially a major hurricane (Category 3-4) early next week, the exact path is still coming into focus.
Two primary scenarios are being considered by meteorologists:
- Sluggish Movement and Delayed Northeastward Curl: This scenario, with increasing probability, predicts Melissa will continue its slow west-northwestward motion over the western Caribbean Sea through early next week. It would then eventually make a northeastward turn mid-to-late next week, potentially impacting Jamaica or the Cayman Islands, followed by Cuba and the Bahamas.
- Quicker Northward Curve: This scenario, currently trending lower in likelihood, suggests Melissa could strengthen and curl northward sooner, affecting Haiti or far eastern Cuba, before moving abruptly northeastward into the central Atlantic Ocean by early next week.
This prolonged and uncertain trajectory means that preparedness must extend well into next week, with residents urged to continuously monitor official updates from sources like the National Hurricane Center.
Factors Influencing Melissa’s Strength
The intensification of Tropical Storm Melissa is influenced by several atmospheric and oceanic conditions. For the immediate future, wind shear may impede rapid strengthening. However, the western Caribbean Sea provides an ideal environment for development, boasting an abundant supply of warm, deep water.
If Melissa avoids prolonged encounters with high wind shear or dry air and stays over these exceptionally warm waters, it has the potential to become a formidable major hurricane as early as this weekend or early next week. This scenario is particularly concerning given the population density and infrastructural vulnerabilities in the potential impact zones.
The Wider Impact Across the Caribbean
Beyond the immediate threats to Hispaniola and Jamaica, Melissa’s outer bands are already bringing showers and thunderstorms across other parts of the Caribbean, including Cuba and Puerto Rico. The storm is also generating significant swells expected to reach Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next few days, posing additional hazards to coastal communities and maritime activities.
In the Dominican Republic, the initial heavy rains have already caused disruptions, snarling traffic in the capital, Santo Domingo, and leading to the cancellation of professional baseball league games. At least one traffic light was downed by the whipping winds, signaling the storm’s early impacts.
For Haiti, the concern is particularly acute. The nation has a tragic history of devastating floods and landslides during past storms, largely exacerbated by widespread erosion. People in Haiti are understandably concerned about the potential for heavy flooding, which has historically caused immense suffering and destruction. As reported by The Associated Press, the vulnerability of communities to natural disasters like these is a recurring challenge for the country.
Melissa’s Place in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Melissa marks the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forming on October 21st. Interestingly, this makes Melissa the latest “first storm” to form in the Caribbean Sea since 1997, a year that saw no storms impact the region. This highlights a somewhat anomalous season for the Caribbean itself, despite the Atlantic basin remaining active overall.
A key factor contributing to Melissa’s potential strengthening is the persistently warm Atlantic waters, with sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean remaining around 30°C (86°F) or higher. These conditions are highly favorable for tropical development as the season progresses towards its official end on November 30.
While the focus remains on the Caribbean, forecasters acknowledge a low, but non-zero, chance of Melissa eventually impacting the U.S. coast, particularly South Florida. Historically, high-pressure systems have often steered storms away from the U.S. and Caribbean, but the dynamic nature of tropical weather demands continuous monitoring. Melissa’s unique track and timing within the season mean vigilance is paramount for all potentially affected areas.
Preparing for Prolonged Impact
The slow-moving nature of Tropical Storm Melissa amplifies its danger, as prolonged rainfall can saturate soils, leading to increased runoff and heightened risks of flash flooding and landslides. Communities in its path are urged to finalize their preparations, secure property, and follow all instructions from local emergency management authorities. Staying informed through official weather advisories will be crucial as Melissa continues its uncertain trajectory through the Caribbean.
