The Texas Longhorns will kick off the 2025 college football season ranked No. 1 in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll. But if history is any guide, No. 2 Ohio State may be better positioned to finish at the top.
Sure, Texas is good bet finish No. 1. BetMGM Sportsbook gives the Longhorns the best odds (+500) to win the national championship. Last season, Texas held the top spot for three weeks and ultimately finished third behind the Buckeyes and Notre Dame. They’ll also turn the quarterbacking duties over to Arch Manning, who appeared ready last season to burnish his family’s legacy.
Still, recent history isn’t on Texas’s side. No preseason No. 1 has finished the season atop the poll since Alabama did it in the 2017 season. In fact, only four teams have managed that feat in the 35-year history of USA TODAY Sports administering the Coaches Poll.
Eight seasons since Alabama started and ended first
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Winning a championship, of course, doesn’t rest on what a panel of 67 head coaches at Football Bowl Subdivision schools say in August. But since the College Football Playoff started in 2014, one of top six teams in the preseason poll has won the national championship and finished first in the poll. Here’s a look at this year’s top six:
For the past two seasons, the team ranked No. 2 in the preseason has gone on to finish No. 1 in the final US LBM Coaches Poll. In the 2024 season, Ohio State followed a winding path to the top – helped in part by the expanded playoff format. The Buckeyes’ journey included a run from the eighth seed in the playoffs to a national championship win over Notre Dame, ranked seventh in the preseason and seeded seventh in the playoffs.
The path to No. 1 was a wild ride in 2024 season
In the poll’s last 35 years, the team ranked second in the preseason is more likely to finish first than the top-ranked team. Ten preseason No. 2 teams have ended the season at No. 1, compared to just four preseason No. 1 teams. In the past two preseason polls, both Ohio State and Michigan were ranked second behind Georgia.
Where post-season No. 1 college football teams started
How many college football preseason No. 1s have finished No. 1
Georgia’s two No. 1 preseason rankings followed two consecutive years when the coaches panel put Alabama at the top ranking only to watch the Bulldogs – its SEC rival – finish No. 1 in the season’s final poll and claim back-to-back national championships.
Since USA TODAY began administering the poll in the 1991 season, the coaches’ preseason No. 1s have become postseason No. 1s just four times – just over 11% of the time. Only twice have teams held the No. 1 position throughout: Florida State in 1999 and Southern California in 2004.
With all of the uncertainty and change entering this season, it’s worth analyzing the schools that find themselves starting in the rankings. Click here to see the season outlooks for all of the teams that begin their campaigns in the preseason poll.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can No. 1 Texas win the national title? History shows it’s not likely.
