Sudan’s two-year conflict has escalated dramatically with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing the entire Darfur region, a move that severely threatens the country’s unity and deepens the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. This definitive guide delves into the historical context, the rise of RSF leader Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, and the dire implications for Sudan’s future.
The brutal two-year war gripping Sudan has entered an alarming new phase, shifting the contours of a conflict already responsible for immense suffering. This week, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) cemented its control over the entirety of the Darfur region, following the ousting of the rival Sudanese army from its last bastion there. This significant territorial gain has ignited profound fears that Africa’s third-largest nation could once again fracture, reminiscent of the secession of oil-rich South Sudan nearly 15 years ago.
The struggle for control of Sudan has been catastrophic, claiming over 40,000 lives and displacing more than 14 million people, making it the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as reported by The Associated Press. The recent capture of El-Fasher, the provincial capital of North Darfur, by the Arab-led RSF, signals a critical turning point that could redraw Sudan’s map.
The Genesis of Power: Understanding the RSF’s Origins
The RSF is not a new entity in Sudan’s tumultuous history, but a force with deep and controversial roots. Formed in 2013, it emerged from the notorious Janjaweed militia, which gained infamy in the early 2000s for its brutal campaigns against non-Arab tribes and rebels in Darfur. These campaigns led to accusations of war crimes and genocide, with former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir indicted by the International Criminal Court in 2009 for his role. During that period, some 300,000 people were killed and 2.7 million displaced from their homes.
Initially, the RSF was established to impose discipline on these Arab militias, which were widely accused of ethnically motivated violence, abuse, and rape across Darfur and other regions. Its leader, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, is a native of Darfur from an Arab camel-trading tribe. He was personally chosen by al-Bashir to spearhead counterinsurgency efforts against largely non-Arab rebel groups. Dagalo leveraged his family’s extensive livestock and gold mining operations in Darfur to expand his influence and support among local Arab militias, quickly amassing an estimated 10,000 fighters.
However, the force rapidly gained its own notoriety. By 2014 and 2015, human rights organizations began accusing the RSF of widespread atrocities, including forced displacement of entire communities, torture, extrajudicial killings, mass rapes, and systematic plunder. The former Biden administration even accused the RSF of genocide and imposed sanctions on Dagalo, his family, and associated businesses, as detailed by The Associated Press.
A Commander’s Empire: Dagalo’s Influence and Controversies
Under Dagalo’s leadership, the RSF has not only grown in military might but has also developed an extensive financial network. His fighters have been deployed in conflicts beyond Sudan’s borders, participating in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and receiving support from the United Arab Emirates in Libya. The RSF also played a controversial role in protecting Sudan’s borders against illegal migration to Europe, part of a deal between the European Union and African countries, though the EU clarified it did not directly fund the RSF.
Dagalo’s gold mining operations have been a critical pillar of his group’s power, becoming Sudan’s largest export after the secession of oil-rich South Sudan in 2011. This economic leverage, combined with military expansion, solidified his position as a major power broker in Sudanese politics following the overthrow of al-Bashir in 2019. He played key roles in a brief transitional government and a subsequent military coup, which ultimately ignited the current power struggle with Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, Sudan’s army chief.
Proxy Wars and International Entanglements
The conflict in Sudan is increasingly marked by external influence. Sudan’s army has formally accused the UAE of fueling the RSF by sending foreign fighters and has filed a case against the Gulf nation in the International Court of Justice for allegedly breaching the genocide convention. The UAE has vehemently denied these charges, dismissing them as a “publicity stunt.”
Accusations also extend to Libya’s strongman Khalifa Haftar, who is alleged to have supplied weapons and fighters to the RSF. Both Dagalo and Haftar benefit from the backing of powerful regional neighbors, highlighting the complex web of alliances and proxy interests at play. These external supports contribute to a war characterized by widespread sexual violence, indiscriminate fighting in civilian areas, and the exacerbation of starvation and famine conditions across Sudan, leading to abuses that displaced millions.
Khartoum’s Scars and the Widening Conflict
The RSF’s campaign has not been without setbacks. The paramilitary force initially fought the Sudanese army in Khartoum, controlling the capital for two years before being forced to retreat earlier this year after a devastating battle that left the city in ruins. This strategic withdrawal did not signify defeat, however.
The RSF regrouped in Darfur, forging new local alliances that strengthened its grip over parts of the neighboring Kordofan region. This strategic repositioning enabled them to resume attacks, including drone strikes, on Khartoum and eastern Sudan, where the army commander is based. This resurgence demonstrates the RSF’s adaptability and determination to maintain pressure on its rivals.
A Fight for Survival: The Power Struggle’s Deep Roots
For both Dagalo and Burhan, the conflict has become an existential struggle. Neither leader appears willing to yield, digging in their heels and actively seeking support from regional allies. They have also replenished their forces with foreign fighters and weapons, including drones sourced from Turkey, China, Iran, and Russia, illustrating the international dimension of this internal conflict.
Dagalo has strategically positioned himself as an ally against the Islamic movement that once underpinned Sudan’s government, a stance that has garnered support from some powerful Gulf states. This is despite his forces being implicated in a brutal crackdown on a pro-democracy protest camp in 2019. With an estimated force of over 100,000 fighters, the question of their integration into Sudan’s armed forces is believed to be a primary trigger for the ongoing power struggle with Burhan.
As Sudan marked the two-year anniversary of its latest war, Dagalo has further asserted his claim to legitimacy by announcing the formation of a rival government. This parallel administration is intended to govern the areas currently under RSF control, signalling a potential future where Sudan could be formally divided. With the recent takeover of El-Fasher, the RSF’s complete control of Darfur reinforces this threat, indicating an intent to either solidify an independent region or launch further military campaigns towards the country’s center.
What This Means for Sudan: The Road Ahead
The capture of Darfur by the RSF marks a dangerous escalation that could lead to lasting geopolitical shifts in the region. The immediate concerns are severe: an intensification of the humanitarian crisis, further displacement, and increased civilian casualties. The prospect of Sudan splitting into multiple entities, potentially along ethnic or political lines, poses a significant threat to regional stability and could create new fronts for conflict.
The international community faces a complex challenge in addressing this evolving crisis. Efforts to mediate a ceasefire and provide humanitarian aid are urgent, but the deep-seated power struggle and the involvement of regional proxies complicate any diplomatic resolution. The future of Sudan, a nation already scarred by decades of conflict, hangs precariously in the balance, with millions of lives dependent on a path towards peace that currently remains elusive.
