It may seem like school just let out for the summer, but this year, it could pay off to stock up on back-to-school supplies early. The uncertainty created by the tariff situation could lead to product shortages and higher prices on back-to-school essentials.
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According to the United States Senate Federal Credit Union, in 2024, parents planned to spend approximately $586 per child on back-to-school supplies, including clothes, shoes, electronics and supplies like notebooks and pencils. Now that many of those items are subjected to tariffs, parents could spend even more this year.
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How Tariffs Impact Back-to-School Supplies
Erik Guzik, Assistant Clinical Professor of Management and Entrepreneurship at the University of Montana College of Business, explained that the tariff impacts on back-to-school supplies are widespread.
“U.S. tariffs affect almost all goods entering our markets, including not just stationary, pencils and calculators, but also backpacks, clothing and footwear,” Guzik said. “The period where tariffs stood at 145% created significant supply-chain disruption and uncertainty, leading to a drawdown of orders from producers, which could create difficult shortages later this summer.”
David Hunt, Chief Operating Officer at Versys Media, supports ecommerce clients who source locally and internationally, and is closely tracking how tariffs are impacting consumer-facing supply chains. “The most vulnerable are product lines that rely heavily on manufacturing in specific regions like China and Southeast Asia,” explained Hunt. “The biggest risk isn’t total absence of goods, but reduced diversity and slower restocking cycles.”
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Back-to-School Supplies To Stock Up on Now
If you want to stay ahead of potential tariff shortages and price increases, consider buying these items now.
Shoes
According to CBS News, tariffs have a significant impact on shoe cost and availability. The U.S. largely relies on China for shoes, and 36% of our shoes are imported. For the best selection and prices, shop early for fall.
Clothing
CBS News reported the U.S. imports $17.3 billion worth of apparel from China, meaning the price of back-to-school clothing could increase, and you might face a limited selection of clothes if you shop closer to the fall. If you have younger children who are quickly growing, consider shopping now but buying one size up.
Backpacks
Guzik explained that, in addition to shoes and clothing, backpacks are particularly susceptible to price increases and shortages. That’s because tariffs can be stacked on these items, and they can add as much as 70% to the base cost. Tariff stacking occurs when multiple tariffs are applied to an item like backpacks, leading to an inflated cost.
Electronics
In April, U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued updated guidance exempting certain electronics, like computers and laptops, from the reciprocal tariffs and the 145% levies implemented on China. That exemption helped prevent the price of back-to-school items like laptops and phones from significantly increasing.
It’s important to note that these exemptions can change, though. According to Mallory Alexander International Logistics, a 90-day exemption for electronics from the 125% tariff on Chinese imports lasts just 90 days. Since such products could increase in price and be more difficult to get, if your child needs a new laptop or phone, it may be a good idea to look for summer sales and buy these items soon.
Branded Items
According to Hunt, supply chain volatility could drive price increases in branded items like themed notebooks, brand-name backpacks and premium technology accessories.
“What tends to happen is brands hedge by pre-ordering inventory or absorbing costs temporarily, but by late summer, especially for non-essential branded items, we can expect a noticeable uptick in prices if tariffs disrupt factory timelines or component sourcing,” he explained.
Hunt added that even uncertainty surrounding tariffs can drive price increases, so you may be able to save by stocking up on branded products now.
Tips for Saving on Back-to-School Shopping
Guzik recommended parents plan ahead and don’t delay back-to-school purchases until late summer. “There is a good chance tariffs could rise again, creating challenges for families to purchase these items in time for the upcoming school year,” he said.
“Start early and buy what’s needed, not what’s trendy,” recommended Hunt. He explained that parents may be able to access discounts through loyalty and email programs that are better than peak-season promotions. He suggested that parents also check smaller regional suppliers who may not be affected by the same distribution lanes as big box retailers.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Stock Up on 5 Back-to-School Supplies in Case Tariffs Create Shortages
