The Steelers +3.5 is the smart play in this historic rivalry showdown — even with Lamar Jackson back, Pittsburgh’s defense and matchup advantages make them the team to bet on. Here’s why.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Lamar Jackson’s return to full practice was the biggest story entering this matchup — and it’s why the line opened at a field goal or more. But the market adjusted quickly, and the Ravens’ +3.5 spread is now a compelling value play. The key is context: Jackson’s historical performance against Pittsburgh is not encouraging, and the Steelers’ defense, while not elite, has shown the ability to slow him down.
Jackson’s career record against the Steelers is 3-6, with a completion rate of just 57.4%. His TD:INT ratio against Pittsburgh is a concerning 9:10 — a stark contrast to his MVP-caliber seasons elsewhere. He’s averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and 41.4 rushing yards per game, but he’s also faced nearly 3.0 sacks per game in these matchups. Even in his best seasons, the Steelers have been able to disrupt his rhythm — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
While Jackson’s presence elevates the Ravens’ offense, the Steelers’ defense has been effective in limiting damage. In their Week 14 matchup, Pittsburgh forced -0.15 EPA/Play — the third-best mark in the league — while holding Derrick Henry to 94 yards on 25 carries. The Ravens’ offense isn’t just about Jackson — but when he’s not at his sharpest, the Steelers’ defense can exploit the gaps.
Even with Jackson back, the Ravens’ offense isn’t the same as it was in previous seasons. His rushing attempts have decreased, and his ability to create space is limited. The Steelers’ defense, while not elite, has shown the ability to contain him — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
Player Props: Where the Value Lies
Lamar Jackson under 232.5 passing and rushing yards (-115)
This is the safest bet on the field. Jackson’s historical numbers against Pittsburgh are not encouraging, and his recent performance has been inconsistent. Even with his return, he’s not the same player he was in previous seasons. His rushing attempts have decreased, and his ability to create space is limited. The Steelers’ defense has shown the ability to contain him — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
Jonnu Smith over 2.5 receptions (+100)
With Darnell Washington out and Pat Freiermuth used as a field-stretcher, Jonnu Smith has become Rodgers’ outlet. He caught all five of his targets last week — and while he didn’t score, he’s a key player in the Steelers’ offense. The Steelers’ desire to get Smith the ball is a clear signal — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
Marques Valdes-Scantling longest reception over 16.5 yards (-118)
Despite catching three passes for no more than nine yards, MVS had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards from his team-high nine targets in the absence of Metcalf. Against the Ravens’ secondary, prone to coverage breakdowns, there could be some more success if Rodgers keeps looking to stretch the field with his former Packers teammate.
Anytime Touchdown: Who to Bet on
Zay Flowers (+160)
After seven total touchdowns in his rookie season, Flowers has found the end zone just five times in 30 games despite 210 targets and 19 carries. However, he’s scored in three consecutive games, including an 18-yard rushing touchdown — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
Kenneth Gainwell (+195)
While Jaylen Warren is the likely goal-line option each week, Gainwell can score in a variety of ways — and he’s turned into a key security blanket for Rodgers. From a matchup perspective, Gainwell had eight touches/targets in the red zone in Week 14 to just two for Warren, scoring on one of four carries — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
Jonnu Smith (+450)
The Steelers have started handing the ball off to Smith — and while I’m not sure what the football reason is for this, we don’t argue with the strategy — we just bet it. That evident desire to get Smith the ball alone might be enough to make them a valuable long-shot bet — and that’s exactly what you’ll see here.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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