Joe Musgrove’s return from Tommy John surgery has hit a significant delay, with Padres manager Craig Stammen confirming the right-hander will likely open the 2026 season on the injured list, immediately reshaping San Diego’s rotation plans and intensifying competition among depth options.
San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen delivered a clear message Monday: Joe Musgrove is not poised to make the opening day roster. The 33-year-old right-hander, who missed the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, will instead begin 2026 on the injured list, a decision Stammen described as necessary given Musgrove’s gradual build-up.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen told reporters at spring training, as documented by Associated Press. The manager emphasized that Musgrove’s limited workload—including just one spring appearance—makes a timely ramp-up to a five-inning, 90-pitch starter unrealistic for the March 26 opener against Detroit.
Musgrove’s last major league outing came on October 2, 2024, when he exited Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves with elbow stiffness per the Associated Press. That moment marked the beginning of his surgery-induced absence, casting a shadow over his 2025 campaign and now spilling into the current season’s preparation.
His lone 2026 spring outing, against a WBC Team Britain on March 4, offered a glimpse of progress: Musgrove faced 12 batters, throwing 36 of 60 pitches for strikes, allowing five hits and one run with three strikeouts and one walk. Yet Stammen labeled this a controlled step in a long-term plan, not a trial for immediate rotation inclusion.
Rotation Depth Tested: Padres’ Internal Competition Heats Up
With Musgrove sidelined to start the year, the Padres must piece together a five-man rotation from a mix of returning arms and new faces. Stammen highlighted a competitive spring training environment, noting that final decisions may not come until the day before opening day.
The confirmed options include:
- Nick Pivetta: A veteran presence returning from 2025.
- Michael King: Emerging as a reliable option.
- Randy Vásquez: Back in the mix after last season.
- Germán Márquez: Another returnee with starting experience.
- Walker Buehler: The former Dodgers ace, in camp on a minor league deal, adding high-risk, high-reward depth.
This group lacks a true ace to replace Musgrove’s frontline potential, but Stammen expressed confidence in the collective ability to cover early-season innings. “We’ve got a lot of depth, we’ve got a lot of competition here in spring training,” he said, framing the situation as an opportunity rather than a crisis.
Stammen’s First-Year Management Navigates Early Adversity
For first-year manager Craig Stammen, a former Padres reliever, Musgrove’s delay is an immediate test of his leadership and strategic patience. The timeline suggests a cautious approach—prioritizing the full-season health of a key pitcher over short-term gains.
Stammen’s comments reveal a philosophy of flexibility: “We’ll miss Joe at the beginning, but we’re going to have Joe at some point during the season.” This optimism hinges on Musgrove’s continued progression without setbacks, but the exact return date remains fluid, dependent on his response to increased workloads in extended spring or minor league rehab.
The manager’s willingness to delay final rotation announcements underscores the organization’s commitment to a long-view plan, a mindset that may frustrate fans eager for clarity but aligns with modern pitcher management protocols post-Tommy John.
Fan Perspective: Rumors, Realities, and the 2026 Outlook
Padres fans, already buzzing with trade rumors and rotation speculation throughout the offseason, now face a reality where Musgrove’s absence reshapes expectations. Social media theories about a quick return have been squashed by Stammen’s blunt assessment, shifting focus to the internal candidates’ readiness.
The team’s championship aspirations, built on a formidable 2024 run that ended in the NL Wild Card, now depend on sustaining momentum without one of its core arms. Musgrove’s 2024 performance—a 3.02 ERA over 166.2 innings—was instrumental in San Diego’s playoff push, and his 2026 absence tests the depth that general manager A.J. Preller has assembled.
While the rotation options offer quantity, the quality will be scrutinized in early April. A strong start from any of the alternatives could calm nerves, but any struggles will amplify calls for external moves, even with the trade deadline months away.
Bottom Line: A Setback, Not a Season-Definer
Joe Musgrove’s injured list placement is a significant early blow to the Padres’ 2026 plans, but not a catastrophic one given the roster’s constructed depth. The key will be managing his return carefully to avoid recurrence, while the interim starters hold the fort.
C Craig Stammen’s transparent communication sets a tone of realism, but the onus now falls on pitchers like Pivetta, King, and the high-upside Buehler to deliver consistent starts. For a team with World Series ambitions, every game counts, and early-season rotation instability could cost crucial wins in a tight NL West race.
The situation remains fluid; Musgrove’s rehab updates will dominate Padres headlines, but for now, San Diego must trust its depth and Stammen’s steady hand to navigate the opening weeks without its planned ace.
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