Key Points
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Nio projects sales of 450,000 units this year, doubling its sales from last year.
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The company’s unique battery-as-a-service offering enables quick battery swaps, addressing concerns about charging time and creating a recurring revenue stream.
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Nio faces fierce competition in China’s electric vehicle market and has encountered challenges to international expansion, such as tariffs and duties on Chinese EVs.
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Nio (NYSE: NIO) is making huge strides. The Chinese automaker projects it will sell a staggering 450,000 units this year, more than double its sales from last year. With such explosive growth, investors may be wondering if it’s time to get on board and invest in the automaker.
While Nio is charging ahead in the electric vehicle race, it faces fierce competition in its home market and has to navigate the complex landscape of global geopolitical tensions. With the stock priced under $5 — $4.47 at 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday — is now the time to buy? Let’s explore the business and investment opportunity ahead.
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Nio’s sales growth has been excellent
Nio continues to increase its vehicle deliveries and expand its market presence. Last year, the company achieved record deliveries of 221,970 vehicles, representing a 39% increase over the previous year. It recently reported sales of 72,056 units in the second quarter, representing a 26% increase from the same period last year.
A unique aspect of Nio’s business is its battery-as-a-service offering, which addresses a common concern for many electric vehicle (EV) drivers: charging time. With its battery swapping technology, at designated locations, Nio can replace a depleted battery with a fully charged one in just 3 to 5 minutes.
With this system, customers pay less upfront cost when purchasing a vehicle, instead paying a fee over time, which provides Nio with a steady stream of recurring income. Analysts at Western Securities, a Chinese investment bank, believe that this segment of Nio’s business could break even by 2026.
It faces some serious headwinds
The electric vehicle market is highly competitive, particularly in China, and Nio faces significant challenges in this environment. Analysts have noted that competition in China’s battery electric vehicle sector is “fierce.” This intense competition ultimately impacts Nio’s ability to increase sales volume, maintain favorable pricing, and achieve profitability.
Image source: Nio.
In the first quarter, revenue fell short of estimates and missed the company’s guidance. The decline was primarily attributed to lower selling prices and increased promotions aimed at clearing out the inventory of older Nio models, as well as a higher proportion of sales from the Onvo brand, which targets the “mainstream family market, ultimately impacting its profit margins.
The manufacturer also faces several geopolitical headwinds. For instance, last year, the European Commission imposed duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, effective Oct. 30, 2024, for a period of five years. This decision was driven by concerns over substantial government subsidies that benefit Chinese EV makers. Additionally, former U.S. President Joe Biden raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%, while current President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs on goods imported from China.
Nio’s cost-cutting efforts
Another criticism of Nio lies in its growing losses. Since its inception, the company has consistently struggled to turn a profit due to its capital-intensive business model, which requires substantial investments in research and development, expansion of production capacity, and the establishment of its power and service networks.
Last year, Nio reported a net loss of RMB 22,402 million (approximately $3 billion). In the first quarter of this year, the company’s losses increased to RMB 6,750 million (approximately $930 million), representing a 30% rise compared to the same quarter last year.
NIO Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
The company is taking steps to improve profitability. In the first quarter, its vehicle margin increased to 10.2%, up from 9.2% in the same period a year earlier. Nio has taken steps to control costs by reducing spending, including restructuring and improving efficiency across research and development, the supply chain, and sales and services.
Goldman Sachs has upgraded the automaker to a neutral rating, citing the company’s cost reduction efforts, and anticipates a 4%-10% improvement in profit levels over the next three years. Looking ahead, Nio CEO William Bin Li is optimistic about achieving profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to the cost-cutting and restructuring initiatives. The company also projects doubling sales to 450,000, but Goldman analysts estimate sales could be closer to 337,000.
Is Nio stock a buy?
Nio is experiencing significant growth in China, with increasing deliveries and rising revenue. The company has a unique battery-as-a-service offering that differentiates it from competitors. However, it faces stiff competition in China along with headwinds from geopolitical trade tensions.
The stock is currently trading at a 0.95 price-to-sales ratio. Investors who are optimistic about its long-term potential and willing to overlook geopolitical tensions and fierce competition may want to consider buying the stock at that price.
That said, its ongoing unprofitability and vulnerability to external economic and political pressures are headwinds for the stock. Before making a purchase, I’d look for improvements in its efficiency, along with signs that it is capturing a growing market share in China and improving its bottom line. Until then, most investors are best off looking elsewhere.
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Courtney Carlsen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
