European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has delivered a stark message to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić: concrete actions on democratic reforms and alignment with EU sanctions against Russia are now non-negotiable for Serbia’s long-sought EU membership, challenging Belgrade’s long-standing geopolitical balancing act.
The path to European Union membership for Serbia has reached a critical juncture. During a recent visit to Belgrade on October 15, 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen directly urged Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to “get concrete” about his nation’s aspirations to join the 27-nation bloc. This direct plea underscores the EU’s growing impatience with Serbia’s diplomatic balancing act between the West and its strong ties with Russia and China.
Serbia’s Complex Geopolitical Balancing Act
For years, Serbia has navigated a complex foreign policy, striving for closer integration with the European Union while maintaining deep historical and economic connections with Russia and increasingly, China. This dual approach has allowed Belgrade to benefit from both sides, attracting significant Chinese investment, particularly in its mining sector, and relying heavily on Russia for energy needs. However, as global dynamics shift, especially in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this balancing act has become increasingly untenable for its EU aspirations.
While Serbia holds candidate country status for EU membership and has opened accession negotiations, its continued refusal to align with EU foreign policy regarding sanctions against Russia stands as a major obstacle. This position has been a consistent point of contention, with Western diplomats reportedly attempting to sway President Vučić towards a more Western-aligned stance, as reported by CNN. Despite joining UN resolutions condemning the conflict in Ukraine, Serbia has notably refrained from imposing any of the EU’s sanction rounds against Moscow, risking alienation from its democratic allies.
The EU’s Concrete Demands: Reforms and Sanctions
During her visit, von der Leyen laid out clear expectations for Serbia if it genuinely intends to progress towards EU membership. Her message emphasized the need for tangible commitments rather than mere declarations. The core demands include:
- Rule of Law: Strengthening democratic institutions and ensuring an independent judiciary.
- Electoral Reforms: Ensuring fair and transparent election processes.
- Media Freedom: Upholding and protecting independent media outlets and journalists.
- Foreign Policy Alignment: Critically, a greater alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy, specifically including the implementation of sanctions against Russia.
“We need to see greater alignment in our foreign policy, including on sanctions against Russia,” von der Leyen stated at the press conference, a quote also highlighted by The Associated Press. She acknowledged that necessary reforms require “patience and endurance” but stressed the importance of an inclusive approach to build a “more stable and peaceful society.”
The Imperative of Sanctions Alignment
The EU’s insistence on Russia sanctions is a cornerstone of its common foreign and security policy (CFSP). Sanctions, or restrictive measures, are designed not as punitive actions but as tools to effect a change in policies or activities deemed harmful, targeting non-EU countries, organizations, and individuals responsible. The EU employs over 40 different sanctions regimes, some mandated by the UN Security Council and others adopted autonomously by the EU Council. Decisions on these measures require unanimity among member states, and their implementation is overseen by the European Commission, as detailed by the European Commission.
For Serbia, aligning with these measures is not just a political gesture but a fundamental requirement for full integration into the European political and economic project. The current situation highlights the significant economic impact of non-alignment; US sanctions targeting Russia have already affected Serbia’s oil sector, particularly its largest oil firm, NIS, due to its majority Russian ownership. With Serbia’s gas contract with Moscow expiring at the end of the year, the country faces increasing pressure to diversify its energy sources and align its foreign policy with Europe, which has offered solidarity measures to Western Balkan partners in response to the energy crisis caused by the conflict in Ukraine.
Internal Pressures: Serbia’s Domestic Reforms
Beyond geopolitical alignment, Serbia also faces significant internal challenges that factor into its EU accession process. For almost a year, large anti-government protests have rocked the country, triggered by a fatal railway station roof collapse in Novi Sad on November 1, 2024, which killed 16 people. This tragedy led to accusations of corruption and calls for early elections, exposing deeper concerns about governance and rule of law.
President Vučić has refused demands for early parliamentary elections and has defended his government’s response to the protests, claiming police used “minimum force” despite reports of violence and numerous detentions. Von der Leyen explicitly addressed these concerns, stating, “We stand for freedom instead of oppression, including the right to peaceful assembly,” and “We stand for diplomacy instead of aggression.” These remarks underscore the EU’s commitment to democratic values, which are fundamental criteria for any aspiring member state. Respect for human rights, democratic principles, and media freedom are integral parts of the Copenhagen criteria, essential for any candidate country’s EU integration process, as highlighted by the European Parliament.
The Broader Geopolitical Stakes
The EU’s renewed focus on integrating the Western Balkan nations—including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo, alongside Serbia—is not solely about individual country reforms. It is also a strategic move to secure peace and stability in a region historically prone to conflict and increasingly targeted by external influences. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has intensified its efforts to bring these nations into its fold, fearing Moscow could exploit existing fragilities to destabilize the region.
A new EU growth plan offers financial support and gradual integration into the EU market in exchange for substantial reforms. This initiative aims to strengthen the economic and political ties between the Western Balkans and the EU, preventing the region from becoming a geopolitical vacuum that rival powers might exploit. The stakes are high, not only for Serbia’s future but for the broader stability and security of the European continent.
What’s Next for Serbia’s EU Path?
President von der Leyen’s visit marks a significant turning point, making it clear that Serbia’s EU accession is contingent upon concrete, verifiable actions. The era of diplomatic ambiguity may be drawing to a close. For President Vučić, the challenge is now to make difficult choices that will either accelerate Serbia’s integration into the EU or risk its continued isolation from the bloc. The coming months will reveal whether Belgrade is prepared to pivot decisively towards the West, embracing the full scope of reforms and foreign policy alignment that EU membership demands, or if it will continue its balancing act, potentially delaying its European future indefinitely.
