The narrative has flipped. Just weeks after being co-favorites, Sam Darnold is now the betting favorite to win Super Bowl MVP after his stellar performance against the Rams, a stark contrast to the odds that once favored Matthew Stafford.
It’s a sentence that still feels odd to type, but Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has not only reached the Super Bowl, but is now the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP at sportsbooks. Darnold opened as a +130 favorite at BetMGM to win Super Bowl LX MVP after the Seahawks beat Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams 31-27 in the NFC championship game on Sunday night.
This is a stunning turn of events. Heading into the championship weekend, Stafford was viewed as the more logical choice for the award. The market opened before the playoffs with Stafford and Darnold as co-favorites at +600. However, Darnold’s fantastic performance in the NFC title game completely shifted the landscape. He was a poised and efficient signal-caller, going 25-of-36 for 345 yards passing and three touchdowns while not turning the ball over once, silencing any doubts about his ability to deliver on the sport’s biggest stage.
The Shifting MVP Landscape
The betting market has quickly adjusted to reflect Darnold’s newfound status. His odds of +130 place him firmly at the top of the leaderboard. His QB counterpart, Drake Maye, has the next-best odds at +240. The drop-off after Darnold and Maye is significant, indicating that sportsbooks believe the award will likely go to one of the two starting quarterbacks.
The next players in line are Darnold’s own teammates, showing the confidence in Seattle’s offense. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had a monster game with 153 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 catches, has +500 odds. Following him is Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III at +650. No other player has single-digit odds, with a steep cliff to the next player on the board: Seattle wide receiver/kick returner Rashid Shaheed at 25-1.
Why Darnold’s Favorite Status Makes Sense
Several factors contribute to Darnold’s rise to the top of the MVP odds. First and foremost is his performance. In a game defined by its defensive intensity, Darnold was the steady hand that guided the Seahawks to victory. His three-touchdown performance was a masterclass in managing the game, making smart decisions, and capitalizing on opportunities when they presented themselves.
Secondly, the narrative is now on his side. The story of the underdog quarterback, once written off, leading his team to the promised land is one that resonates deeply with voters and bettors alike. Darnold’s journey through various NFL stops has been well-documented, making his current success one of the most compelling storylines of the postseason.
Finally, the Seahawks are now the favorites to win Super Bowl LX, currently listed as 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM. When a team is expected to win, its quarterback naturally becomes the frontrunner for the MVP award, as their performance is seen as the primary reason for the team’s success.
While the betting public had previously shown strong support for Maye and Smith-Njigba—Maye had the second-most wagers in the market and Smith-Njigba had the most total dollars wagered to win the award—Darnold’s championship-clutch performance has changed the calculus. The sportsbook’s current worst outcome for the award would be Smith-Njigba winning, a scenario that now seems far less likely given the quarterback-centric nature of the Seahawks’ victory.
As Super Bowl LX approaches, all eyes will be on Sam Darnold. The question is no longer if he can win, but if he can cement his legacy as the game’s Most Valuable Player. The odds suggest he is more than capable of doing just that.
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