(The Center Square) – Ahead of U.S. trade talks being held with Chinese officials this weekend, a new report highlights the U.S. states that are the most and least exposed to Chinese import tariffs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese officials in Geneva, Switzerland, this weekend to potentially begin trade negotiations.
In the last month, the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated with tariffs exceeding 125% to 145%, the “equivalent of an embargo,” Bessent said. The goal of the talks is de-escalation, Bessent said.
Ahead of the talks, states have been bracing for the impact, with some importing goods from China worth the equivalent of 25% of their GDP. States with the most imports coming from China, with some of the largest retailers, logistics companies, and manufacturers, are particularly vulnerable, a new report from Investors Observer found.
“As higher tariffs ripple through supply chains, the effects are likely to be widespread, from rising consumer prices to potential slowdowns in local economies, touching businesses, workers, and families,” it says.
“Tariff risks are concentrated in states with major ports or manufacturing sectors like California, Illinois, Texas, Tennessee” most likely to experience “supply chain shocks due to their high import volumes and economic dependence on Chinese goods,” the report states.
The 10 states most reliant on Chinese imports are California, Illinois, Texas, Tennessee, New York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington and Florida, according to the data.
One-quarter of California’s imports come from China, worth $122.75 billion in 2024, accounting for 12% of California’s GDP. California has “deep economic ties to Chinese manufacturing and supply chains,” the report states; trade with China is “critical … to the state’s economic engine.”
Illinois’ imports from China represent 19% of its total imports, worth $41.4 billion last year and 19% of the state’s GDP. Even though Illinois trades more with Canada than China, Chinese imports “account for an even bigger slice of Illinois’ economy at 19% of GDP, showing how states with smaller overall trade volumes can still be highly trade-dependent relative to their economic size,” the report states.
Texas’ imports from China represented 9% of its total imports, worth $35.7 billion last year and 15% of the state’s GDP. Even though Mexico is Texas’ top trade partner, “China’s role is crucial in supplying electronics and industrial equipment for the state’s booming energy and technology sectors, making it vulnerable to price shocks and supply delays from tariff changes,” the report states.
Tennessee’s Chinese imports totaled 17% of its total imports, worth $20.4 billion last year and 22% of its GDP. Tennessee “has the highest GDP exposure,” the report states. Its imports total 22% of its GDP, “the largest GDP share among the top ten, highlighting significant economic sensitivity to trade disruptions,” the report states. Tennessee’s “high dependency ratio” on China “is driven by electronics and auto parts manufacturing, meaning any supply chain disruption from China would have a pronounced impact on local industry and jobs.”
By contrast, the rural states of Montana, Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Maine, Hawaii, South Dakota and Idaho are the least reliant on Chinese imports, according to the data.
The report evaluated state level trade data from the Commerce Department, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Observatory of Economic Complexity, Trade.gov, state commerce reports and industry news. It evaluated total imports by state in U.S. dollars, state GPDs, the share of state GDPs from imports, imports from China and share of imports from China. To calculate imports from China in U.S. dollars Investors Observer says it “multiplied imports (2024) in USD and Imports from China %.”
