Rep. Mike Lawler would have a better shot than Rep. Elise Stefanik in defeating Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul in next year’s gubernatorial race, a bombshell new poll claims.
Lawler would fare better among moderates than Stefanik as both Republicans eye a possible race against Hochul in 2026, according to the survey conducted by Brock McCleary, founder of Harper Polling.
Hochul leads Lawler 48%-41% on the initial ballot, but the race becomes a dead heat when participants were informed of their records, the poll showed. Hochul was still ahead, but by a margin of only 44%-43.4%, the poll said.
The incumbent governor meanwhile leads Stefanik 50.1%-38.8% on initial ballots and 46%-42.6% after participants were informed of their records, according to the survey results, which were obtained by The Post.
Lawler has an advantage compared to Stefanik in key downstate areas, the poll showed — with Lawler ahead of Hochul by 20 points on Long Island, while Hochul is up by slightly leaner 15 percentage points, the data showed.
Stefanik leads Hochul 51%-36% on the island while Lawler leads 55%-35%, according to the poll.
In the Hudson Valley, Hochul leads Stefanik by 13 points, but is only 5 points ahead of Lawyer, who is from the lower Hudson’s Rockland County. The poll shows Stefanik trailing Hochul 40%-53% with Lawler in a much tighter race but still down 44%-49%.
Interestingly, the poll finds Lawler running as strongly as Stefanik on her upstate turf.
Stefanik has a 1-percentage point lead over Hochul — 49% to 48% — in the Albany/North Country/Central New York that includes her congressional district.
But Lawler also leads Hochul by a point, 48%-47% in the same region.
In the Western New York- Buffalo region, Stefanik has a 2-point edge over Hochul, 45%-43%.
Likewise, Lawler leads Hochul by 3 points in the Buffalo region — 47% to 44%.
Hochul is 41 points ahead of Stefanik in New York City, but 35 points ahead of Lawler, according to the poll.
“Self-identified moderates are a key voting group to win statewide in New York because, by party registration the moderates in this survey were 51% Democrat, 21% Republican and 28% independent,” said McCleary, who has polled for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Lawler performs 10 points higher than Stefanik on the gubernatorial ballot among moderates.”
Stefanik has a 20-point higher name identification than Lawler with Republicans.
McClearly said the survey was conducted for a right-leaning client that he would not disclose, not any particular campaign.
The poll’s findings did not release who would win a hypothetical GOP primary between Stefanik and Lawler.
Other prior polls gave Stefanik, who is close to President Trump, a big edge in a GOP primary contest between the two congress members.
McCleary said one thing is clear: Hochul is a vulnerable incumbent even in blue leaning New York.
Nearly six in 10 voters — 59% — disapprove of her job performance, while just 38% approve. That’s about the same rating as for President Trump in a Democratic-dominated state.
Only 29% of voters support her running for re-election, while 66% prefer someone else.
“Hochul is a very unpopular incumbent — as unpopular as an incumbent can get,” the pollster said.
That means either Lawler or Stefanik could give Hochul a run for her money.
In 2022, Hochul defeated former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee, by 6-percentage points in a hard fought race.
Harper Polling surveyed 600 likely voters from May 7-9. The poll a margin of error of plus or minus 4% percentage points.
The Stefanik camp said the poll’s findings were suspect.
“The upstate polling numbers alone are laughable,” said Stefanik senior campaign adviser Alex deGrasse, noting it’s not credible that Lawler is running as strong upstate as Stefanik.
He also said Stefanik’s close ties to Trump is a plus, not a minus, with moderate voters.
“Those who say they should run away from President Trump and MAGA like Lawler and his campaign are mistaken. To win in New York you will need to energize the Trump Republican base and win independents and Democrats which Elise has done cycle after cycle,” deGrasse said.
“Elise is the strongest candidate – and frankly the only candidate – who can build upon the 2022 success of pro Trump candidate Lee Zeldin and finally end the tyranny of Kathy Hochul.”
Lawler’s camp declined to comment.
Stefanik has given strong indications that she’s running for governor. Lawler, too, is mulling a run and will soon decide whether to thrown his hat in the ring or seek re-election to his lower Hudson Valley House seat next year.
