The redistricting war is heating up as both parties look to gain ground in the race for the House next year.
Texas Republicans are moving forward this week with redrawing district lines, while Republicans in other states like Missouri could follow suit. Democrats from California to New Jersey have taken notice, ramping up calls to redraw their maps in an effort to blunt the GOP’s efforts.
The redistricting tit-for-tat threatens to roil the midterms, sowing uncertainty in an election that will reshape the remainder of President Trump’s term.
“It’s our belief that we can’t fight with one hand behind our backs,” House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told reporters this week.
“We can’t let Texas go unanswered,” Aguilar said. “And it’s our belief that we should do whatever we can to protect democracy.”
Texas lawmakers are convening in Austin as a part of a special session Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called to address 18 issues, redistricting being one of the most closely watched items. Some of the first hearings on redistricting are scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has already signaled his state is considering several avenues for potentially redrawing their maps in response, though Democrats would need to work around the state’s independent redistricting commission.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) suggested during a recent interview with CNN anchor and chief correspondent Manu Raju that Democrats may be eyeing opportunities in New York and New Jersey, though both also use redistricting commissions and likely would require some kind of change to their state constitutions.
“Governor Hochul is closely monitoring the redistricting developments in Texas and any potential implications they may have,” Jerrel Harvey, senior communications adviser to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), told The Hill in a statement last week.
Meanwhile, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) told reporters Monday, when asked whether he was planning to pursue midcycle redistricting, that it was “too early to make any definitive statement about it” but appeared to leave the door open to the possibility.
“No news to make, other than I will quote Sean Connery from ‘The Untouchables’: Never bring a knife to a gunfight,” Murphy later added. “So, if that’s the way we’re going, we’re from Jersey baby, and we won’t be laying down.”
But the redistricting battle may not end there — Missouri Republicans are considering redrawing their maps too, according to Punchbowl News.
There has also been speculation that Florida Republicans could pursue redistricting as well. Last week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) scored a redistricting win when Florida’s Supreme Court upheld a congressional map that blocked a challenge to the elimination of the majority-Black congressional district in the north of the state that previously was represented by former Rep. Al Lawson (D). The area that comprised the former congressional district is now divided among three Republican lawmakers.
Other states could potentially follow suit, risking creating an all-out redistricting war that could not only scramble which seats both parties should be focusing on, but also impact the logistics of how states conduct their midterms.
With the filing deadlines for candidates rapidly approaching — and the possibility that House lines may not be finalized until later if some states pursue new maps — some office-seekers may not know which district they’re running in until very late in the process. The uncertainty of congressional lines also could risk pushing back a state’s primary date if they’re not finalized in time.
Meanwhile, Republicans argue that changing the redistricting process in states like California may not be possible without a constitutional amendment.
Still, some House Democrats believe they don’t have a choice but to fight back.
“It will create uncertainty,” acknowledged Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). “No one’s supposed to be redistricting in the middle of a decade like this. This is part of the reason why when we get all the levers of power, we have to pass federal redistricting laws.”
Asked whether she had concerns that the ordeal could create a redistricting arms race that could include other states, Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash), the House Democrats’ campaign chair, argued Republicans have “already started down that path,” pointing to the redistricting battles in Texas and Ohio this year and North Carolina last cycle.
While Democrats believe they can’t let Republicans’ redistricting push go unanswered, some members of the party are not keen to see Democrats participate.
“I may not always like the way redistricting goes, but the process has been one with some civility to it, and what they’re doing in Texas is criminal,” Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told The Hill.
“I would not like to see blue states participating in the criminal enterprise,” he added.
Other Democrats believed the party needs to focus elsewhere before considering redistricting.
In a memo released Wednesday, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee argued the party should be focused more on flipping state legislatures in an effort to fight back on redistricting.
“To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting — not just in the final months of 2030, but starting now,” the group’s memo read.
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