Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial start of summer for many in the United States, but it won’t feel like that in the East leading up to the holiday thanks in part to a rare May nor’easter.
A one-two-punch of storms will deliver heavy rain and gusty winds to the Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic through the end of the week and into some of the holiday weekend. The miserable weather will be made even more miserable by unusually chilly temperatures that feel more like early March.
Nor’easters – coastal storms that track along the East Coast – are more common from September through April, rather than the warmer months in the US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
They’re usually fueled by a strong jet stream that sets up between a clash of colder air sweeping south over the East and warmer air pushing north over the Atlantic Ocean.
That scenario rarely comes together from late spring to early fall because temperatures in the East are typically more on par with the heat over the Atlantic during that time. Without a temperature clash, the jet stream is weaker and there will be no nor’easters.
That’s not the case this week. The weather pattern underway in the East looks more like it would when winter turns to spring, despite summer being right around the corner.
Right now, parts of the Arctic are unusually hot. It’s been a record-hot May in Iceland, while parts of Greenland and Arctic Canada have also been feeling unseasonable heat.
All that heat has ejected colder air from the Arctic and sent it farther south than normal for nearly-June, setting up the temperature clash to fuel this rare nor’easter.
A warming Arctic has already been linked to changes in nor’easters. As parts of the region heat up faster than the rest of the globe due to fossil fuel pollution, studies have shown that it may be causing winter nor’easters to get worse.
What to expect Memorial Day weekend
A first storm is already bringing cool, wet weather to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast Wednesday. The nor’easter will follow, developing overnight and moving just off the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.
Nor’easters are typically powerhouse storms that can deal major impacts, but this week’s is packing a relatively mild punch.
The nor’easter will strengthen some as it slowly pushes toward New England, bringing more rain and gusty winds to the Northeast and churning up rough seas for much of the coast into the weekend.
Most of the Northeast will record up to 2 inches of rain through Saturday with closer to 3 inches possible in some spots in southern New England, parts of New Jersey and New York. The region has been quite wet in recent weeks, so the rain could lead to some localized flooding or rises on waterways, but widespread flash flooding is unlikely.
Nor’easters are synonymous with snow, but despite temperatures dropping as low as the 40s in parts of northern New England, any chances for it are quite low and confined to the highest mountain peaks.
It will be breezy in parts of the Northeast from Thursday through Saturday, especially in southern New England. The combination of saturated soils, rain and gusty winds could bring down some trees and power lines. The damp, windy weather could also hinder travel on the road or at the region’s busy airports.
Some dampness will linger into Sunday but then temperatures will start to rebound. Seasonable temperatures and some sunshine will return just in time for Memorial Day on Monday in much of the Northeast.
CNN Meteorologist Derek Van Dam contributed to this report.
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