Very few people expect an interest-rate cut on Wednesday because of tariffs, but President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. The President also may ramp up his criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell when he doesn’t get what he wants, predicts Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel.
Wednesday will be the day all eyes are on the Fed and its chair, but very few onlookers—if any—expect an interest-rate cut.
“Powell is not going to do anything,” Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said during a CNBC interview Monday morning, referring to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Siegel isn’t the only one predicting a stay on rates. Traders are pricing in an almost 98% chance of the central bank leaving interest rates untouched. A Morgan Stanley managing director, Chris Larkin, said in a statement that “no one’s expecting a rate cut,” and Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride said that the “Fed will remain firmly planted on the sidelines.”
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% during its March meeting because the central bank anticipated tariffs could induce inflation. A month later, Powell warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation and slow the economy. In the interim, Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff agenda, then pressed pause to talk deals. The president placed a 10% blanket tax on other countries and extra duties on China. Beijing retaliated and trade among the two largest economies in the world has all but shut down. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, although the S&P 500 has erased the tariff-fueled selloff.
The Fed is in wait-and-see mode. If it were to cut rates, inflation could come roaring back—but if it waits too long, the economy could fall into recession. It could be difficult to imagine the central bank ditching its wait-and-see approach, but Siegel said he believes there is a case for lower interest rates because inflation has cooled.
Still, Siegel said he thinks Powell will deliver similar talking points as the most recent meeting: that he is happy with where pandemic-era inflation now is, but the Fed can make a move when needed. He also suspects the president’s Powell-bashing to worsen.
“The attacks on Powell are going to escalate a lot,” Siegel said. “Trump, I think, is going to step up the escalation,” he said later.
Trump may have no intention of firing Powell (which he claimed after posting that his termination couldn’t come fast enough), but he hasn’t let up on his criticism of the Fed chair or his calls for lower interest rates. During a rally last week, Trump said he had “a Fed person who is not really doing a good job” and that he knew more about interest rates than that person, without naming Powell. In an interview that aired Sunday, Trump said Powell “should lower them, and at some point, he will,” referring to interest rates. “He’d rather not because he’s not a fan of mine.”
Nonetheless, Siegel sees turmoil ahead. He said hoped to see some trade deals by now; the administration has hinted that deals are in the works and one may even be inked, although there is nothing concrete. But tariff pain hasn’t really hit, yet, Siegel suggested, not when it comes to higher prices or fewer goods (although there have been warnings there will be fewer goods available and what’s left will be costlier).
“Unless we see an unwinding of these trade tariffs much faster, I still see some turbulent times ahead,” Siegel said.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
