Despite intense competition, Patrick Mahomes frequently stands atop the NFL MVP odds boards, a testament to his generational talent and the Kansas City Chiefs’ enduring success, even as voter fatigue and emergent stars challenge his claim.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a name synonymous with excellence in the NFL, and consistently finds himself at the forefront of the NFL MVP conversation. Regarded by many as the best quarterback of his generation, his presence in the MVP betting markets is a constant, often starting the season as the clear favorite.
Mahomes, already a two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP, entered the 2024 season as the betting favorite, listed at odds like +500 on FanDuel Sportsbook. This reflects the high expectations for him and the Chiefs, who aim for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title. However, as betting markets indicate, being the favorite is “far from a shoo-in,” with an implied probability of 16.67% given the intense competition.
The Rollercoaster of an MVP Season: 2023 Reflections and 2025-26 Ascensions
The path to MVP is rarely linear. In the 2023 season, Mahomes faced an unusual challenge, falling out of consistent MVP contention as a “limited Chiefs group of skill position players made it a tougher-than-usual regular season.” Despite these struggles, the team rallied, and the Chiefs reloaded their offensive unit around him, suggesting a return to their top-tier form.
A look at a hypothetical 2025-26 season provides further insight into the dynamic nature of the MVP race. Early in that season, Mahomes found himself trailing other contenders. However, after a decisive Week 6 victory against the Detroit Lions, where he threw for 257 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns, Mahomes surged to become the betting favorite once again. His odds shifted to +200 at sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM, passing then-reigning MVP Josh Allen and rising star Baker Mayfield. This mid-season pivot underscored Mahomes’ ability to elevate his play and his team’s performance, even after an uncharacteristic 0-2 start and a 2-3 record for the Chiefs.
Key Competitors and the Shadow of Voter Fatigue
While Mahomes’ talent is undeniable, the MVP race is always highly competitive. Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, who in the context of the 2025-26 season was considered the reigning MVP (following Lamar Jackson’s 2023 MVP win), often present a strong challenge. Allen’s odds can fluctuate significantly, as seen after Buffalo’s 24-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, which saw his odds dip.
Another prominent contender is Baker Mayfield, who in the 2025-26 season showcased phenomenal play despite a banged-up offensive line and injuries to key receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Mayfield’s ability to lead his team to a 5-1 record, coupled with his league-leading fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, propelled him significantly up the odds board, starting from +3500 preseason odds to as high as +300.
Beyond current front-runners, other formidable quarterbacks consistently feature in MVP discussions:
- Joe Burrow: A top contender who has battled injuries but remains a perennial threat.
- Lamar Jackson: The 2023 NFL MVP, known for his dual-threat capabilities.
- C.J. Stroud: The offensive rookie of the year who quickly climbed the ranks, especially after the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs.
- Jalen Hurts: A dynamic quarterback who was the runner-up in the 2023 MVP race.
A notable factor impacting Mahomes’ candidacy is “voter fatigue.” As the best player in the NFL, voters sometimes seek fresh narratives, comparing Mahomes to past versions of himself rather than other players. Team success and quarterback statistics are paramount in the MVP equation, giving Mahomes a significant advantage when the Chiefs are performing well. However, if individual stats dip slightly or another player has a compelling story of overcoming adversity, it can sway the votes.
Historical Context: The Quest for a Third MVP
Winning a third NFL MVP award would place Patrick Mahomes in an elite class of players. Historically, only six players have won the award three or more times since its inception in 1957. Peyton Manning holds the record with five MVPs, followed by Aaron Rodgers with four. Jim Brown is the only non-quarterback to win multiple times, securing three MVP awards.
The challenge of winning consecutive MVPs is even greater. In the award’s history, only five players have achieved this feat: Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers (2020-21), Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Jim Brown. Mahomes himself famously broke a long-standing “curse” in 2022 by being the first reigning MVP to also win the Super Bowl in the same year since Kurt Warner in 1999.
The journey to an MVP award is a season-long narrative, blending individual brilliance with team success and compelling storylines. As Patrick Mahomes continues his illustrious career, his pursuit of a third MVP will undoubtedly be a central, captivating storyline for fans and analysts alike, showcasing why he remains a perennial favorite in the eyes of both oddsmakers and observers.
